TimeformUS Analysis returns in June
David Aragona is off this week through Monday's Memorial Day card. Daily TimeformUS Analysis will resume when NYRA racing returns with the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga, beginning on Thursday, June 6.
Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 19
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 3: 3 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 10 - 3
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 5 - 10 - 2 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 1 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Perhaps they go back to Watch Hill (#7), but I’m done with this horse. He’s had his chances at short prices and just seems to run to the level of his competition, settling for minor awards. Based on the evidence of his last race, the younger rivals have caught up to him and he just lacks the upside of the rest. He does get Lasix for the first time, but it feels like a move of desperation following a disappointing performance. I think the horse to beat is Janssen (#3), who finished second in that April 19 race that a few of these exit. This horse is piling up the runner-up results, but he was arguably best after setting a fast pace two back, and just ran into a superior rival last time. He’s the one to catch, though he might have to deal with some early speed from Waflr. I could also see Solo Rye’d (#2) getting ridden more aggressively after he was asked for some speed going shorter last time. He’s a longshot worth considering as he makes his second start off a layoff after an improved return. I have to give one more chance to Arco Augusta (#1), who was a little unlucky in that April 19 affair. He was loaded with run in behind the leaders past the half-mile pole, but was gradually shuffled back in traffic around the turn before finally getting clear too late in the stretch. Then last time he got into similar trouble, but wasn’t able to find that clear path at the quarter pole, steadying and hopping over heels before finally finding room late. He made a strong late rush to just miss. Now he’s wheeling back in 9 days, but he’s been in sharp form. He won’t be as generous a price this time, but he seems due to break through.
Fair Value:
#1 ARCO AUGUSTA, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 3
I acknowledge that Startup Mentality (#1) is a likely winner of this race, but she is going to be an awfully short price going out for popular connections, and Irad Ortiz riding lowers the odds even further. She showed a lot of promise in the first couple of starts of her career, winning impressively on debut before finishing a good third after a wide trip in the Pebbles. However, I was a little disappointed in her effort in the Tropical Park Oaks. She did have some early trouble and raced wide, but just lacked finish. Then last time she didn’t get the best ride at Tampa, but was still supposed to beat those horses once she got clear in the late stages. I just wonder if she’s really panning out, and I think there are a couple of rivals in here with upside. I also have questions about the overall turf ability of Chad Brown’s other runner Lady Beth (#6). She was so impressive winning her debut on synthetic last year, but she hasn’t really delivered on that potential since switching to turf. Her Winter Memories earned a solid speed figure, but she was supposed to win that day after getting clear up front. No Show Sammy Jo (#5) is an interesting option returning from the layoff. She ran like a horse who needed experience and fitness on debut, and she improved to win convincingly in her second start last summer. She hasn’t been seen in nearly 11 months, but she’s returning in a realistic spot. Graham Motion is 25 for 122 (20%, $2.74 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes over 5 years. My top pick is Vino Rouge (#3), who also returns from a layoff, though she hasn’t been out of action for quite as long. This filly achieved her best results on dirt last year, but I thought she ran deceptively well in her lone turf start on debut. She never had great position that day, racing wide without cover for much of that affair, and still stayed on gamely for fourth against a solid field. She subsequently improved, but I think she’s more of a turf horse. She returns getting Lasix with original rider John Velazquez taking over again. The price should be fair with those two Brown runners in the mix.
Fair Value:
#3 VINO ROUGE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
There really is no one to fear in this $40k maiden claimer that is lacking in turf form. I suppose Starlight Dancer (#10)will go favored since she’s a second time starter dropping in class with Irad Ortiz aboard. I can’t say that I loved her turf debut last fall even though it was solid enough to make her competitive at this level. She’s clearly a contender, but I wouldn’t want to settle for a short price.Superstarsusan (#6) only got one chance on turf last fall and didn’t get the most energetic ride from Jose Ortiz, who just dragged her to the back of the pack before launching a belated wide rally. She obviously took to turf, and should fit well at this level as she drops and gets Lasix off the layoff. My top pick is Justheart (#4), who figures to be a generous price as one of two Bruce Brown trainees in this field. She debuted against a weak bunch on dirt, but ran like a horse who just needed that experience, trying hard but lacking the fitness to see it out. Now she switches surfaces, which was probably the intention all along. Her damside pedigree isn’t overly turf-oriented, but we have seen the limited progeny of Redesdale do quite well switching to grass. She strikes me as one that can handle it, and it’s not as if she has to improve that much in a wide open affair.
Fair Value:
#4 JUSTHEART, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 7
I didn’t like either half of the Wayne Potts entry, so I’m not pleased to see them both scratch. From the race Chuck Willis is exiting, I would rather take Joking Way (#2) out of that race, since he closed a bit to get up for second and will be a much bigger price going out for a low-profile barn. The horse to beat is arguably Lost in Rome (#6) off the Rob Atras claim, but it’s not as if this barn has great numbers with this move. I feel this runner has been opportunistic when he’s been successful recently, taking advantage of favorable trips and pace scenarios. And now he figures to get overbet with Irad Ortiz aboard. Victorious Wave (#10)seems perfectly logical as he steps up off a victory. This is a tougher spot, but he has back races that gives him a chance here, and it seems like he’s rounding back into form for Chris Englehart. My top pick is Secret Rules (#5). This horse was dropped in class to get claimed at Keeneland last time by New York-based connections. He got claimed by Linda Rice, and is now back in New York, where has had success. That last performance also isn’t nearly as bad as the result might suggest. He never had good early position after getting rated from the start. He was then shuffled back on the turn and actually did some running late to get up for fourth. He should get a more aggressive ride this time with Jose Lezcano taking over. He rode him twice in the past and sent him to the lead both times. He probably can’t beat Chuck Willis to the front, but I believe he’ll be prominent throughout.
Fair Value:
#5 SECRET RULES, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
The expected scratch of Works for Me takes some pace out of this race, which could affect the chances of Sketch (#4). Yet this 3-year-old still has a right to do better in his second start off the layoff, and it’s not as if he has to improve that much on his return in the William Walker. He got off a step slowly and was rated at the back before launching a strong late rally in a race that was won on the front end. That 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him in the mix, and he isn’t supposed to mind getting an extra half-furlong this time. I do think he’s the horse to beat, but he will need to work out a trip from off the pace.I think there are a couple of price horses to consider. Summer in Adriane (#8) ran well over this course in November, a race from which he was later awarded a maiden victory. He subsequently regressed at Fair Grounds, but he didn’t catch the ideal situations in a few of those races, since he doesn’t really want to go two turns. He cut back last time on this circuit facing older rivals in a tough allowance event. He only managed to finish fourth, but ran well considering that he got squeezed back early and was wide thereafter. He can continue his progression here. My top pick is Smokey Smokey (#9). This horse has only sprinted on turf once his career, on debut at Saratoga where he actually ran quite well. He got sent off at 26-1 and ran a big race to finish second, only losing to subsequent stakes winner Good Lord Lorrie. He stretched out after that, but didn’t seem to be quite as sharp in a pair of starts in Kentucky. From there he failed on dirt, and then moved to synthetic. He ran well to break his maiden in December, beating future stakes winner Epic Ride going this distance. He then found himself chasing extremely fast paces set by the fleet Joe Shiesty in March, and last time actually reeled that one in before getting overhauled by a closer. That has been a key race, from which multiple horses have returned to improve their speed figures. I like this Mike Maker trainee getting back to turf, and he might get somewhat overlooked off the hidden form.
Fair Value:
#9 SMOKEY SMOKEY, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
John the Beer Man (#3) looks pretty logical at first glance. He made an eye-catching late run to get up for fifth on debut, and then improved to just miss last time at Keeneland with a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, he did get a strong pace to close into in that Gulfstream unveiling, and last time he really had no excuse not to win after working out a perfect trip. Even though that race got a fast fig, I want to see it replicated, since that didn’t look like a stellar group on the way in. I actually think Brown’s other runner, first time starter Vesting (#1), may be more dangerous. They paid $228k for this son of Blue Point, best known in this country as the sire of BC Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Big Evs. However, there is stamina on the dam’s side, and he picks up Flavien Prat for the unveiling. Among the others with experience Coast Along (#5) makes sense off his last effort, a runner-up finish to another well-meant Brown firster. He lacks the upside of some others in this field as a 4-year-old, but he figures to be involved in the finish with his typical good effort. Storm Ready (#8) is a difficult call for me, because I’m inclined to be against a horse will get overbet based on connections, as a $1 million purchase ridden by Irad Ortiz. However, I do think this horse has significant upside out of his debut. He didn’t get the best ride that day, shuffled back past the half-mile pole before getting ridden conservatively through the stretch. He figures to move forward out of that race, and this is a pretty significant jockey upgrade. My top pick is Cuando (#4). I’ve been wanting to see this horse get a chance on turf since he began his career over the winter at Aqueduct. He ran well in most of his prior dirt starts, and he had an excuse for his only poor result when involved in a pace that fell apart two back. He moves like a horse who may take to this surface, and he certainly has the pedigree for it. He’s by 16% turf route sire Not This Time out of a dam who has produced 2 turf winners. Furthermore, even the foals who didn’t win on turf had a preference for grass and synthetic. I think this is the right spot for him, and he may be a square price given how competitive this field came up.
Fair Value:
#4 CUANDO, at 7-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 18
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 2 - 9
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 7 - 3 - 9 - 5
Race 11: 5 - 9 - 7 - 1
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
The opener didn’t draw a large field, but it looks pretty competitive among 5 of the 6 runners, and even longshot Strong Light (#3) has run a few speed figures that put him in the mix. Union Lights (#1) is arguably the horse to beat based on his recent consistency at this level, but he’s not exactly a convincing win candidate, finishing second in 10 of 28 career starts with just 2 victories. He’s a closer, so a lack of pace in this race could compromise him. Tepeu (#5) looks like the speed as he makes his second start off a layoff for Mertkan Kantarmaci. He’s dropping down to a realistic level after just getting a start in against tougher off the layoff. This does feel like a horse who has seen better days, but perhaps he can carry his speed farther with the apprentice. Michelle Nevin sends out a pair, of which Ski Country (#6) may attract more support. He hasn’t run that well in two starts off a layoff this spring, but he might just get getting the class relief he needs. His speed figures suggest he fits well against this crew, but he is wheeling back in just 6 days. I’m actually more interested in the other Nevin runner Cumberland Blues (#2). He’s coming off a layoff after a poor showing last September. Something appeared to go wrong that day, as he took plenty of money but then wasn’t ridden for speed away from the gate, lost contact with the leaders, and was running on late after the race was over. His prior start at Saratoga is better than it looks, since he was setting the pace racing on a dead rail going a distance that may be too far for him. Now he’s returning at the same level with the claiming waiver in use. He’s been on the worktab for a while, and shows some solid drills for the level so he should be fit. I’m hoping he can recapture some of that early speed off the layoff in a race that seems ripe for a new face.
Fair Value:
#2 CUMBERLAND BLUES, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
This is a solid New York-bred allowance optional claimer, featuring a few interesting runners either returning to this circuit or returning from layoffs. City Mischief (#3) fits the former category, as he makes his first New York start since last summer at Saratoga when he was an unlucky loser after bobbling awkwardly a few times in the stretch. Since then he’s run well at Woodbine and Gulfstream. He’s exiting a particularly tough race against open company that has produced some horses to run strong speed figures in subsequent starts. He’s dropping to a realistic level here and will be tough with his good race. I’m a little less confident in Seaver (#10), who also brings some fast speed figures from Gulfstream Park. He made an impressive late run from well off the pace to win last time and had previously run even faster on synthetic. I just wonder if he’s going to bring that 5-furlong form to his longer distance, since his prior races outside of Florida don’t exactly make him a formidable presence in here. Twenty Six Black (#2) had no trouble winning off a similar layoff at this time last year, and went on to record a fast allowance victory going this distance at Belmont. He tailed off with added ground after that, but now he’s getting back into an appropriate spot for Horacio De Paz, who has good stats off layoffs on turf. My top pick is Works for Me (#4) if he actually starts here. He’s cross-entered in the Paradise Creek on Sunday, but this seems like a more favorable race for him. There just isn’t much early speed signed on here, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be clearly leading in a situation favoring frontrunners. He just doesn’t want to go a mile, but he actually ran decently in the Woodhaven after contesting a fast pace. His lone turf sprint as a 2-year-old earned an excellent 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and he should be tough to catch if he runs a similar number in this spot.
Fair Value:
#4 WORKS FOR ME, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
I’m not thrilled with the horses who figures to take money in this starter allowance. Debate (#6) looks like the favorite after placing third twice at this level in his last couple of starts. He did seem to improve with the stretch-out to a one-turn mile. However, I’m not convinced that this horse necessarily wants to go 9 furlongs in this spot. He’s only tried two turns once before, and both prior victories have come sprinting. Linda Rice has had success with stretch-outs like this, but I didn’t want to take him at short price. I’m actually more interested in the other Linda Rice runner Strapped (#3). That horse does have to overcome a layoff, but he ran well closing over a speed-favoring surface when last seen in October. Night Effect (#5) is another who could attract support after missing by a nose in a similar spot last time. Yet he had things go his way that day and now he lands in a spot that is likely to feature other speed. I’m most interested in two of the bigger prices in this race. One of those is Storming Chrome (#1), who stretches back out to two turns after having success going longer at Laurel earlier this year. Those were cheaper races, but he continued to move forward after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz is January. I can also make excuses for his two local starts. He wasn’t fast enough to get forward in that one-mile event two back, which was contested over a speed-favoring course. Then last time he was ridden for position but again lacked the speed to get forward in a race that featured a much faster pace. He actually stayed on gamely despite racing out of position early. I expect he can make better use of his speed going this trip. My top pick is Surface to Air (#7), who might be the longest price in the field. This colt showed some quality early in his career, chasing home the likes of future stakes winner Lugan Knight and Corona Bolt in a pair of dirt sprints as a 2-year-old. He spent a long time in the maiden ranks thereafter, trying a variety of surfaces and distances. He’s lacked consistency, but he did run competitively going 1 1/4 miles on dirt last summer, so stamina is clearly no issue for this horse. He received a significant class drop when he returned from a layoff at Keeneland last time, and handled that field with ease. The 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure is modest compared to today’s rivals, but he’s now second off the layoff. He was also claimed out of that spot by sharp connections. Panagiotis Synnefias is 6 for 31 (19%, $2.60 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years with 25 of those 31 hitting the board. He figures to fly under the radar here, and I think this spot suits him.
Fair Value:
#7 SURFACE TO AIR, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7
This is another highly competitive race in the middle of this card. Digital (#4) is likely to attract some support off the Linda Rice reclaim, and it’s a good sign that he’s moving up slightly in class. I thought he got a pretty good trip last time and was simply second-best to Rocket and Roll, who got loose up front. Digital has the prior form to be dangerous here, but it’s not as if he ran particularly well when he was formerly with Rice. Majestic Frontier (#7) finally gets some needed class relief. He was compromised by track biases and slow paces in a couple of recent starts, but he does need to rebound to be successful here. There is also less pace to set up his late run after the scratch of Rocket and Roll. Especially after that scratch, Khafre (#5) could sit the right stalking trip just off longshot Predicted. Khafre ran well against weaker in his first start off the claim for Ray Handal before failing to handle a sloppy track in his next start. He rebounded in March, and ran well again last time getting back on a fast surface. That April 7 performance may be better than it looks, since he was chasing 3-wide throughout against a rail bias. We have already seen another horse who got a wide trip and finished behind Khafre come back to win out of that race. I view him as the clear most likely winner, and he doesn’t figure to be some extremely short price.
Fair Value:
#5 KHAFRE, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
The more time I spent looking at this turf allowance, the less inclined I was to settle for the favorites. Operation Torch (#7) looks appealing at first glance, sporting strong speed figures from last spring and summer. However, he was a disappointment against winners considering the way he broke his maiden second time out. He did meet some solid rivals, but he showed a tendency to get rank and lack finishing power in his last few starts. He got shelved before the end of turf season last year and now returns for a new barn. Todd Pletcher is just 6 for 38 (16%, $0.74 ROI) first off a trainer switch on turf, often underperforming with these types. He’s not for me. I’m also skeptical of Alexis Zorba (#9). He's obviously in good form right now, and was arguably best in his last start, rushing up along the inside after breaking a step slowly. I just prefer him going sprint distances. He did win at a mile at Gulfstream in January, but that turf course is more conducive to carrying speed. I won’t be surprised when he hangs on for a piece, but I preferred others on top. Ruse (#2) is likely to display more speed after getting rated from a wide draw and having some early trouble last time. He has plenty of prior races that give him a chance in this spot, though he does have a tendency to settle for minor awards. Scramble (#8) makes sense as he races second off a layoff. He never got a chance to do much serious running in his return at Gulfstream, always buried on the rail with nowhere to go at any point in the stretch. He showed quality last year, trading decisions with Operation Torch, and he figures to be the better price of the two this time. My top is a horse who figures to be a much bigger price, and I may be reaching a bit with this one. Have You Heard (#5) showed some quality for Bruce Brown early in his career, running on well on a variety of surfaces. His form tailed off for that barn, but he bounced back in a big way last time first off the claim for Mike Maker. Stretched out to a mile, he always traveled well and sailed clear as a dominant winner. He earned a competitive 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, and now Maker steps him way up in class to try tougher on turf. He appears to possess plenty of versatility as a son of Hard Spun, and he handle this surface last year. The way he ran last time gives me confidence that he can continue moving forward for the Maker barn, and he figures to fly under the radar here.
Fair Value:
#5 HAVE YOU HEARD, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 9
There are three main players in this Vagrancy and they all have questions to answer. Beguine (#6) has run some of the fastest races among this group, but she has to overcome a layoff. She did run well off a freshening here last May, but she also got to control up front that day and now she lands in a race that features some other speed. Big Pond (#2) nearly became a Grade 1 winner in the La Brea last winter before not faring nearly as well when she tried a tougher spot at that level in the Madison last time. Now she switches to Bill Mott looking to rebound on the East Coast. It remains to be seen how her California form will translate. Hot Fudge (#1) is perhaps the biggest wild card, as she was in great form through the winter, winning 5 races in a row including 3 consecutive stakes in this division. However, she just didn’t look like herself last time in the Distaff, fading after getting a perfect trip. She looks like the inside speed again and must rebound to have a chance. Given those doubts about the favorites, I want to find an alternative. Imonra (#3) has to get a little faster to upset this field, but she won that most recent optional claimer at Gulfstream with much greater ease than the half-length margin would suggest. She appeared to respond very favorably to the turnback in distance after failing to get two turns in her prior start. She also ran well in December, when just getting run down by the classy Maryquitecontrary. I think she’s found her niche in these one-turn races, and it’s encouraging that Saffie Joseph is shipping her in for this race, especially coming off that fast workout in early May.
Fair Value:
#3 IMONRA, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, May 17
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 1A/1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 8 - 10 - 11
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 5 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 4 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 9: 8 - 4 - 9 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This race has been brought back from last Friday with the addition of Sacred Wish (#1), who probably becomes the horse to beat. This filly was pretty good on dirt, and she transferred that form to grass in the second half of last season. She won her turf debut in the Winter Memories, and then didn’t run much worse in two subsequent stakes attempts despite settling for minor awards. She was arguably best in the Pebbles last November after getting a much wider trip than the winner. Her return at Keeneland was merely decent, but she may move forward second off the layoff. Christophe Clement sends out two alternatives. Breath Away (#6) makes some sense, as she faced some of the same horses as Be Your Best in the Autumn Miss last year and held her own. She put forth one of her best efforts in the Tropical Park Oaks to conclude her 3-year-old campaign. However, her lack of early speed is a concern. I prefer the other Clement runner Malleymoo (#3), who figures to be a better price. I can’t fathom how this filly sold for as much as $550k after her fortunate victory in the Penn Oaks last year, but that’s neither here nor there with regard to her chances in this spot. Since that acquisition, I just thought she ran in the wrong spots for Todd Pletcher. I understand taking a shot at the big purses at Kentucky Downs, but that race was too short for her and she got a wide trip. Then last time they tried stretching all the way out to 1 1/2 miles, which she doesn’t want either. Now she’s with Christophe Clement, who has picked out a much more appropriate race. She has some things to prove, but she has a right to build on her decent 3-year-old form, especially since her last two races aren’t true representations of her ability. She might also benefit from an aggressive ride like the one she got in the Penn Oaks, landing in another race without any speed.
Fair Value:
#3 MALLEYMOO, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
This allowance optional claimer looks like one of the most competitive races on the Friday card. You could see from my ML that I really wasn’t sure who might go favored in this affair. Big Everest (#10) figures to attract some support based on his undefeated record at Aqueduct, which includes 3 stakes victories going this one-mile distance on the inner turf. He did show a new dimension in the Artie Schiller last fall, rating behind the leaders before rallying to victory. However, he’s generally been a horse that is best when he can clear off to the lead, and that’s unlikely to happen in a race that features plenty of speed drawn to his inside. Even if Dylan Davis decides to rate this time, he runs the risk of racing wide without cover, which might activate this gelding’s headstrong tendencies. He’s not for me. I view Grand Sonata (#4) as the most likely winner of this race, and believe he would offer value if he is indeed a similar price to that aforementioned rival. While he hasn’t done much winning over the last year, his lone victory last summer did come when dropped down to this level at Saratoga. After that, he had no chance going 1 1/2 miles in the Turf Classic. He then ran better than the result might indicate in the River City after working out an uncomfortable trip, forced to alter course and weave through traffic in the stretch. He also ran fine at Gulfstream when last seen, just running out of real estate in a race dominated up front. Now he returns in a logical spot and is drawn well towards the inside. He’s the top pick. The only other horse that really interests me is Turf King (#3). He had some minor trouble at the quarter pole when settling for third in the Jersey Derby last summer before winning a stakes on synthetic. He returned from a lengthy layoff this winter at Gulfstream in a tough spot. He didn’t do much running that day, but he also didn’t have much of a chance after getting held up in traffic at the quarter pole. He has a right to move forward second off the layoff, but he does have to improve so I would want to demand a price around the ML odds. The other logical contender is Pioneering Spirit (#1), who might just be racing into fitness for Linda Rice, as he did last year before reeling off 4 consecutive victories. His Fort Marcy was a step in the right direction, and he should be able to revert to his preferred closing tactics this time.
Fair Value:
#4 GRAND SONATA, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 9
With this race coming off the grass, the horse that I liked on turf now inherits the favorite’s role. I thought Boss Tweed (#4) would really like the switch to grass, but now you have to swallow a short price on a horse who has been quitting on the dirt. This is a significant drop in class and he is supposed to be the clear speed after scratches. However, the MTO entrant that gets in You Beaut (#12) could be a potential pace factor, and I don’t think Boss Tweed is the kind of horse that can withstand early pressure and win. If it weren’t for the lengthy layoff I would have been interested in Spoofy (#9) as the alternative. He ran pretty well when last seen on dirt at Saratoga last summer. Yet he did have to cycle up to that performance, and I wonder if he’ll need to gain some fitness in his first start back off the layoff. My top pick on dirt is Four Eyes (#8). I know this horse has had more chances than the rest, but his recent form isn’t nearly as bad as it looks. He was racing wide against rail biases twice over the winter. He ran poorly on Jan. 18, but was wide throughout on a day that featured the strongest rail bias of the entire year in New York. We have seen multiple horses who were basically eased that day return to run much better subsequently. Four Eyes might have taken an even bigger step forward on Feb. 3 if not for again getting compromised by an inside bias. He’s now had a few months off but was once capable of running numbers that would make him competitive at this level. The price should be fair.
Fair Value:
#8 FOUR EYES, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Thursday, May 16
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 4: 8 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 11
Race 6: 4 - 9 - 8 - 1
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 14 - 1A
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 8 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
This New York-bred maiden event looks like one of the most competitive races on the card. Among those who could attract support, the filly that I’m committed to playing against is Focus Pocus (#4). I’m not optimistic about her prospects to negotiate a longer distance. I know she’s bred to handle a mile, being a full-sister to multiple route winner Courageous Girl. However, she hasn’t run like a horse that wants more ground, spurting clear in upper stretch of her sprints before tiring late. It’s not as if she projects to have everything go her own way up front, and I think others have more upside. The horse to beat might be Mommasgottagun (#1). She ran like a typical Linda Rice first time starter who needed her debut experience. She was mildly shuffled back after the start and was striding greenly down the backstretch before settling into a better rhythm and finishing well late. She’s bred to get the added ground, and Rice has good stats doing this. She is 7 for 25 (28%, $2.67 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over 5 years. I think Top of the Table (#5) is another viable contender in this spot after having already proven that she can handle a mile last time. That was a softer field than this one, but she had to navigate some traffic in upper stretch before staying on best of all late. I still think she might ultimately have a future on turf, but she doesn’t need to progress much more to be successful in this spot on dirt. My top pick is a new face. First time starter Devils Arrow (#3) sold for $70k over a year ago when she worked 21 4/5 at OBS March, looking very much like a filly who would need route distances. Therefore it makes sense that Jonathan Thomas has taken his time with her, and is debuting her going a mile. This daughter of Arrogate is out of a half-sister to Awesome Humor, who won the G1 Spinaway and was second in the G1 Alabama, so there’s plenty of stamina here. She’s been working pretty well at Keeneland, and Jonathan Thomas has had success with this move. Over 5 years, Thomas is 4 for 7 (57%, $6.60 ROI) with first time starters in dirt routes, including a few that won at NYRA.
Fair Value:
#3 DEVILS ARROW, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 4
She’s Awesome (#1) looks pretty formidable at first glance. She’s won 4 of her last 8 starts, with 3 seconds and a third. Much of that success has come since she was claimed by Linda Rice, for whom she ran well at the starter allowance level over the winter. Following her January starter victory she got a couple of months off and was subsequently dropped in for a $25k tag. The drop seemed a little suspicious, but the alternative of trying an N1X allowance race might have been too ambitious. She won that race, but her claim was voided by the vet. Therefore she’s still with Linda, who drops her again to this $20k level. As with the prior drop, it’s not out of character for Rice to make this move with a horse that has already paid for itself. In my view, the bigger issue with She’s Awesome is the rail draw. She has gotten outside stalking trips from wide posts in her recent starts, and she didn’t appear to appreciate kickback when she encountered it last November. She’s probably going to get outrun from the inside this time, and I wonder if she’ll be as effective with a different trip. My top pick is Beautiful Karen (#8), even though her recent form looks worse than that of the two favorites. Yet I would argue that her last race isn’t nearly as bad as it seems. That was a pretty quick pace going 7 furlongs over a dull and tiring track, and she did well to hang on for third behind the improved Solib. The horse who was chasing her early, Liberty Flame, faded to fifth and came back to win her next start by over 7 lengths. Beautiful Karen has had some time off since then and I like that there’s no significant dropdown in her return, especially since Rudy has run her for cheaper claiming tags in the past. She’s drawn outside of all the other speed, and will be tough for this field to handle if she can rebound to one of her better efforts. Her winning 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure from three starts ago is higher than any of the recent numbers achieved by favorite She’s Awesome.
Fair Value:
#8 BEAUTIFUL KAREN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
Book of Wisdom (#7) may have finally found the right field as she drops in for a tag for the first time, but I certainly don’t need to support her at a short price. She’s already burned plenty of money, and her form has been heading in the wrong direction for several months now. I can excuse her for failing to get a mile last time, but it’s not as if she was ever seriously involved in that race, having lost the early speed she once possessed. She’s logical, but not for me as the favorite. I see two interesting alternatives. One of those is Dramatic Effect (#1). This mare has run some speed figures that make her competitive against this field, and she didn’t get the most comfortable trip going a mile last time, shuffled back along the inside early before staying on late. I don’t mind her turning back in distance, and she’s getting an interesting trainer switch. Emron Ibrahim has had success on this circuit in the past at lower levels. She gets blinkers and also switches to a rider who has had more success here. The only thing I don’t love is that she’s drawn inside again. My top pick is Sonia’s Flame (#9). Like the favorite, she’s dropping down following a poor effort at the maiden special weight level. Yet at least she’s had fewer chances, and never carried the same weight of expectations, getting dismissed at big prices in both prior starts. She actually ran a decent race on debut, finishing just a length behind Book of Wisdom after a wide trip. She seemed to just take herself out of the race last time after encountering some early kickback, and was never seriously motivated thereafter. Now she’s dropping and draws a better outside post. She also figures to show more speed with blinkers going on.
Fair Value:
#9 SONIA'S FLAME, at 4-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Sunday, May 12
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 5 - 1/1A - 6
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 8 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 9 - 10 - 11
Race 6: 15 - 8 - 11 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 13 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 5 - 11 - 15 - 3
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
The two likely favorites in this spot both have form going this distance that would make them awfully tough for their rivals to handle. Khali Magic (#3) won twice at this level over the winter before losing as the odds-on favorite last time. She was making her first start off the claim for Orlando Noda that day and just seemed to regress slightly for the new barn. Both of her prior victories had come for Gustavo Rodriguez, who now claims her back and keeps her at the same level. Perhaps she’ll bounce back with one of those better efforts, and her early speed does appear to give her an advantage. Cinderella’s Cause (#6) ran a similar speed figure last time when winning first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci. That was a decent open $40k claimer, so this isn’t that much of a step up in class. She benefited from an outside stalking trip last time and she’s drawn well in the outside slot again. I think last time was the time to have her at 5-1, but she does appear to be in sharp form. I just want to take a shot against this pair with a filly who should be a better price. Harlan’s Bond (#5) has been campaigned as a sprinter for most of her career, and she didn’t run well in her two prior attempts going this distance on dirt. However, she has gotten a lot better since then, really blossoming over this winter, running some of the best speed figures of her career. I liked the way she was staying on at the end of that 7-furlong race two back as if a little added distance might suit her. She’s a horse who seems to run best when she can be involved throughout, and the slower paces of these longer races should allow her to get forward. She also gets a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, and David Donk does well coming back on short rest.
Fair Value:
#5 HARLAN'S BOND, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
I don’t have a major knock against likely favorite Magia Nera (#5), other than the fact that his form is totally exposed at this point. He’s run consistently well in his last few starts for Carlos David, and finally broke through the N2L claiming condition last time. Yet a claim put in on him was voided by the vet that day, and now he’s stepping up against a tougher field that features plenty of class droppers. He’s the horse to beat, but I think others offer better value as win candidates. One of those is Harvard (#2). I have been chasing this horse since he returned from a lengthy layoff for David Jacobson earlier this year, and he hasn’t run that badly. One could argue he actually sports stronger form than Magia Nera, but he’s just been placed in some spots that are a little too tough for him. Now he’s getting needed class relief, and I also think the mile is the best distance for him. I generally don’t like these Jacobson runners when they’re dropping, but this one appears to belong at this level. Ski Country (#7) finished behind Harvard when they met in early April, but he might have needed that start coming off a long layoff. I expect him to run better this time, and he does have one effort form Monmouth last summer that would make him tough in this spot. He’s one I’ll be using. My top pick is Pineapple Man (#8). He ran well enough to win a race like this two back when besting N2L claimers by over 4 lengths, earning a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That was a return to form for a horse who had been eased coming off the layoff for Mike Maker and tailed off last summer. He is clearly good enough to beat this field on his best day. He has to bounce back from another poor effort here, as he underperformed off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio. However, I didn’t think he got a particularly savvy ride that day, as Lane Luzzi eased him back at the start and let him drop way too far back in a race that didn’t feature any pace. He was actually running on best of all in the stretch from an impossible position. I don’t mind him stretching back out, since he has run well going a mile in the past, and the outside post should suit his style.
Fair Value:
#8 PINEAPPLE MAN, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
This race becomes a little less interesting with the switch to dirt, since two of the main track only entrants look pretty formidable. Coolcalm Collected (#9) is the obvious horse to beat as she returns from a layoff. She ran a couple of races last season that would make her awfully tough for this field to beat. However, the layoff has to be a mild concern, since trainer Tim Hills is just 4 for 34 off 150 to 300 day layoffs over 5 years, with a $1.21 ROI. On Main rival Will Be Famous (#10) looks like her main pace rival from the outside. She’s shown speed and faded in each of her last 3 starts, but did run pretty well last time chasing outside before getting overhauled by closers. They both make sense, but I’m actually interested in another horse out of that April 7 affair. I had wanted to bet River Tay (#1) on the dirt, but I still think she’s worth a shot on dirt. She obviously can sprint, nearly winning her debut race on grass going this distance last summer. She subsequently improved on turf for Bruce Brown before going to the sidelines. She got in a prep race on dirt last month, and I thought she handled the surface pretty well considering her trip. She had good position early but got shuffled back into the far turn and actually did well to rally for fourth. She figures to move forward here regardless of surface, and she drew well towards the inside.
Fair Value:
#1 RIVER TAY, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 8
This race changes a bit after scratches, including the removal of some early speed in the form of Baraye and El Terreno. I still think we could see an honest pace, though it won't be as fast as I anticipated. That could aid Pipsy (#9), who has been a frontrunner overseas. I made that Will Walden filly the tepid ML favorite based on her strong Irish form. Woodford acquired her for a massive sum – $928k at Tattersalls – and perhaps she’ll justify that purchase price. She was pretty impressive racing overseas last year, but speed over there doesn’t always translate to American turf sprints. Moving in a few slots helps her, but I'm still mildly skeptical at what could be a short price. Kodiac Wintergreen (#6) might be the horse to beat, but the scratches didn't help her cause. She ran well in both turf starts to begin her career, beating a strong field second time out at Saratoga. She subsequently ran well after getting a wide trip in a rail-dominated race at Kentucky Downs going a mile. She missed some time thereafter, but got a prep in last month on dirt at Keeneland and should move forward getting back on her preferred surface. I'm a little more interested in Kairyu (#5), who I’m expecting to be a slightly better price. I think she just was in the wrong spot coming off the layoff when stretching out against a tough group in the Grade 2 Appalachian. That race featured a strong early pace that completely fell apart, and she was chasing a quality speed before tiring. She had been pretty impressive in the first couple of starts of her career, winning the Grade 3 Anglesey beating Pearls and Rubies, who would go on to finish second in the Group 1 Cheveley Park later in the year. Cherie DeVaux is an exceptional turf sprint conditioner, sporting a $2.60 ROI in a 97-runner sample. I originally had her on top, but after scratches, there's another horse that I want to upgrade to my top pick. Marco T. (#13) draws into the field from the AE list, which seemed unlikely when this race was first carded. This New York-bred filly has run well in all of her prior turf sprints, including when finishing second against open company in the Steward Manor going this distance last fall. She closed well off the layoff at Gulfstream two back going a distance that is probably too short for her. I was really impressed with her last race getting back to 6 furlongs at Aqueduct. She broke very sharply, rated well in mid-pack, and then unleashed a powerful stretch kick to win going away by nearly 4 lengths. That race got a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which makes her one of the fastest horses in this field. Christophe Clement is wheeling her back in just 10 days, but that might be a good sign. She also could be a bigger price than she otherwise might have been if she had drawn into the original field.
Fair Value:
#13 MARCO T., at 9-2 or greater
#5 KAIRYU, at 5-1 or greater
Picks & Plays for Saturday, May 11
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
PICKS
Race 1: 1/1A - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 8 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 10 - 1 - 9
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 9 - 6
Race 8: 7 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 10: 1 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 11: 16 - 1 - 13 - 5
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
The two Chad Brown entrants in this Beaugay figure to attract the bulk of the public’s support. Whitebeam (#5) is obviously the more accomplished of the pair, having won the Grade 1 Diana last year in a mild upset over stablemate In Italian. However, she’s been pretty disappointing in a pair of starts since then, checking in fourth behind stablemates in both the First Lady and Matriarch. I thought she was a little tough to handle in the early stages of both races, and getting especially keen under Prat at Keeneland. I’m also not sure if it was Prat’s choice to go with Aspray (#4) instead of this mare, who he obviously had success with last summer. Regardless, I just find Whitebeam a little tougher to trust, especially drawn outside where she may be unable to get early cover. Aspray is at least on more of an upward trajectory, but you do have to be a little concerned about the layoff. It couldn’t have been the plan for her to go to the sidelines after Saratoga. I think Chad is bringing her back in a logical spot, and layoffs usually aren’t a concern for this barn. I just want to see her do it again, since I wasn’t the biggest fan of her races prior to that visually impressive Lake Placid score. That leads me to Neecie Marie (#2), who figures to be a much better price. This filly obviously has to improve a little, but she certainly has a license to move forward in her 4-year-old debut when most horses begin to reach their peak form. She was improving all the time during her 3-year-old campaign, finishing gamely to just miss in both the Jockey Club Oaks and Sands Point over this course. I don’t think there’s much doubt that she was the best horse in the latter race after making a 3-wide move on the far turn. She even tried hard in the Mrs. Revere at the end of the season on dirt, which is not her preferred surface. I love that Butch Reid reaches out to Joel Rosario to take over in this spot, and I don’t think she’s going to be terribly pace compromised since she showed the ability to sit closer to paces earlier last year.
Fair Value:
#2 NEECIE MARIE, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 4
Straight No Chaser (#1) horse looked like he was on the cusp of becoming one of the best sprinters in the country after winning the G3 Maryland Sprint on the Preakness undercard last year. Unfortunately he soon went to the sidelines with an issue, and it’s taken him nearly a year to get back to the races. He returns in the barn of Juan Landeros, who is the assistant to the currently suspended Dan Blacker. He’s been working well out west and will be tough for this field to handle if he returns in top form. You just have a swallow an awfully short price on a horse coming off a one-year layoff following a serious issue. Then throw in the fact that he drew the rail with his main pace rival Durante (#2) drawn just outside of him, and I think there are some reasons to at least explore other options. I’m a fan of that fellow speed Durante, and can easily make excuses for his last two races. It’s just hard to see him outdueling the favorite without setting it up for someone else. Perhaps the horse who sits the right trip is Joey Freshwater (#6), who put forth a breakout effort last time when winnig an optional claimer by nearly 4 lengths with a career-best 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The final time number for that race was actually a 124, which is nearing the favorite’s territory. He got a perfect trip, but he figures to get a similar setup here. He has run well in stakes before, so coming off Lasix shouldn’t be much of a concern. I think he’s dangerous but would want to see greater price disparity between he and the favorite. My top pick is a horse who will be a much bigger price. Twenty Four Mamba (#5) got into great form over the winter, running exceptionally well to win on Dec. 9 after chasing a fast pace in a race that fell apart behind him. A repeat of that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure would give him a real chance here. And he validated that improvement on Jan. 12, beating another solid optional claiming field. He seemed like an interesting new face in the Tom Fool but lost all chance when getting off to a slow start, not the first time the gate break has been an issue for him. He then went to Laurel to try another stakes, but completely failed to show up. I think he has a chance to bounce back here, and I like the slight turnback. He obviously needs the favorite to regress off the layoff, but I’m viewing that as a real possibility, which opens up this race.
Fair Value:
#5 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 5
I could mention every single horse in this wide open starter allowance field where so many are either switching surfaces or trying to get back to better turf form from the past. I’ll get right to the chase and make the pitch for the one horse that really interests me. Showdown King (#8) has never tried turf, but he did run one of his best races on synthetic two back at Turfway. He was soundly beaten by the winner, but that horse, Chiringo, is pretty good. He didn’t run well next time, but then came back to win two in a row with 110 and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figures. Showdown King was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who ran him back on dirt in April. He found himself in a tough spot for the level and wasn’t effective. Yet I’m pretty intrigued by the subsequent switch to turf, something that Linda probably had in the back of her mind when she claimed him. Rice used to have more success with this move than she does now, and actually has very poor statistics with non-maidens trying grass for the first time. Yet this gelding runs like a horse that should take to turf, and he certainly has the pedigree. His dam B Rockett earned both of her victories on turf, and she is out of multiple turf allowance winner Sixty Rocketts. This horse is bred for grass, and I like the Rice is trying the surface while keeping him protected in a starter race. I would primarily use him with the two logical favorites Borletti (#1), who has been in great form recently on dirt and might deserve another chance on grass, as well as Power Attack (#10), who ran well on turf as a 2-year-old and might be getting back into form after a series of layoffs.
Fair Value:
#8 SHOWDOWN KING, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 6
The expected scratch of Tuscan Gold makes this Peter Pan a little more wide open, since that horse looked like a legitimate favorite. The Wine Steward (#3) now figures to inherit the favorite’s role as he makes his second start off a layoff after just missing in the Lexington. He ran pretty well considering the time away, actually improving by 2 points on the 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure he had earned over 6 months prior in the Breeders’ Futurity. However, I do think he was very much with the flow of the track in that Lexington. More so that speed having an advantage, I thought the rail was very much the place to be in the two-turn races on that April 13 card, and both of the top two finishers rode the inside for nearly their entire trips. Among his rivals, the biggest wild card is Deterministic (#7). He was so impressive coming off the layoff in the Gotham, and was bet down to odds-on status in the Wood Memorial off that performance. However, he just failed to show up in that final Derby prep, getting a little keen early but then just coming up empty when asked for run past the half-mile pole. He ran so poorly that you can’t just say it was the added distance that defeated him. Perhaps he’s not as effective on a fast track, or maybe he’s gone backwards after that strong return. I’m skeptical he can bounce back, and it’s not like he projects to be a great price after scratches. I think there are two interesting horses making their stakes debuts in this spot. One of those is Native Land (#8), who could be the biggest price in this field. He ran well with a very tough trip on debut, and then was extremely impressive when he finally broke his maiden a couple of starts later. He stepped up against winners last time and wasn’t facing the toughest field, but I liked the way he stayed on for the victory after having to alter course in upper stretch. He’s getting a class test, but he still has upside and appears to want every bit of this distance. My top pick is Unique Insight (#2). This just seems like the rare Chad Brown horse that didn’t have it all figured out at the start of his career. Even Chad didn’t seem sure what to do with him, switching to turf and trying blinkers early on. Yet stretching out on the main track seems to have brought out his true potential. He’s been aggressively ridden in his last couple of starts, and he’s responded well, just galloping fields into the ground. That 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time makes him as fast as anyone in this field, and I thought he beat a legitimate rival in the promising Corporate Power. He drew well again, and now looks like the main speed after scratches. I view him as a horse that’s just finally reaching his potential rather than some flash in the pan, and he figures to be a square price again.
Fair Value:
#2 UNIQUE INSIGHT, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
This race obviously goes through the pair of Charlie Appleby trainees. The globe-trotting Nations Pride (#9) is clearly the more accomplished of the two runners. He was a terror on this circuit in 2022, nearly sweeping the Turf Triple series. His 2023 campaign was limited yet sprawling in terms of travel, and he had success, though his Group 1 victories were achieved in Germany and Canada. That most recent victory came up quite fast, earning a 131 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but he wasn’t exactly beating the strongest field. He subsequently ran a poor race in Bahrain, and now returns from a layoff. He’s pretty good, but I get the sense he’s been a little overrated, and could be an underlay here. Silver Knott (#8)didn’t have as much success in the U.S. during his own 3-year-old season, but he was also facing a tougher crop of horses last year. I wasn’t his biggest fan at that time, but he did always have the pedigree to stretch out, and he seemed to really relish added distance when he tried 1 1/2 miles in the Elkhorn last time. He did get a perfect trip, but I still thought it was a step in the right direction for a horse who has always had talent. He’s just as dangerous as his stablemate, and could be a slightly better price. I considered a lot of horses in handicapping this race, even giving a long look to the unexposed Greek Order (#6), who has to improve on his U.S. debut but does look like one with potential to take a considerable step forward. I ultimately settled on the Pan American winner Kertez (#2). I don’t necessarily think much of the race he’s exiting (just look at the PPs of Harry Hood), but I do think Kertez is the horse you want out of that race if you want anyone. It was his first start in the barn of Christophe Clement, whose foreign shippers sometimes need a race. He got a perfect trip, but I still think that race was just a jumping off point. I actually think he’s way more interesting based on his form in France, where he was knocking heads with the likes of Group 1 winners Simca Mille and Place Du Carrousel. There is supposed to be pace in this race, especially with those two Naipaul Chatterpaul runners signed on, and Kertez should benefit most if this turns into a test of stamina late.
Fair Value:
#2 KERTEZ, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 8
I’m not thrilled with either of the likely favorites in this maiden special weight event. Granadilla (#3) has gone off at short prices in both starts and failed to get it done each time. She didn’t get the smoothest trip on debut and showed better early speed last time. However, she was no match for winner Peony, who absolutely would have won by more if not geared down in the last sixteenth. She makes sense against this field, but won’t be much of a price with Irad Ortiz. Main rival Mulkey (#4) arguably has more upside in her second start, but I didn’t think she did anything special on debut. She was such a short price because she was facing a weak field. The filly who beat her did come back to win but did so with an ordinary speed figure. I also think both of these fillies could get outrun in the early stages by Inflammabelle (#2). This Michelle Nevin trainee showed a ton of early speed last time, going a little too fast for the 7 furlong distance before tiring late. The slight cutback should suit her, and she figures to be a decent price again with Romero Maragh on board. I just wanted to get a little more creative with Carol T (#7). I liked this filly’s debut where she showed speed and faded behind talented New York-breds My Mane Squeeze and Dolomite. She then caught the slop at Parx and was running well in her return to New York in October before swerving through the stretch as Jose Ortiz seemed to wrap up on her. Her two starts since then have both been poor, but she looked uncomfortable each time, especially in her last race when carrying her head awkwardly. Now she returns from a freshening adding Lasix. There was once some ability here, and she shows a bullet drill for the return. In a race where the favorites don’t entice me, I’ll give this longshot one more chance.
Fair Value:
#7 CAROL T, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 9
The Michael Dubb entry figures to attract plenty of support in this allowance optional claimer since both halves are contenders. The horses are also sent out by two of the top barns on the circuit, Chad Brown and Rick Dutrow, and they’re ridden by leading riders Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat. Based purely on connections this pair is almost certain to be an underlay. While either one can win, I’m not totally convinced by either of these horses. The Brown trainee Belouni (#1)did win the Woodhaven over this course, but he was also a disappointment in his surrounding races last year. He has shown some mild improvement since coming back off a layoff as a 4-year-old, running well behind the talented Northern Invader last time at Keeneland. Yet he can be pretty tricky to ride and isn’t exactly the most trustworthy option. I’m also not fully convinced that Danzigwiththestars (#1A) is ready to handle this step up in class. He ran the best race of his career off the switch to Rick Dutrow last fall, but he got an absolutely perfect trip to earn that victory against a weaker field. He’s now drawn outside, and he’s a horse who has needed a start coming back off layoffs in the past. Some may consider Conman (#2) or Runningwscissors (#3), both of which drew well down towards the inside. However, I think Conman needs to improve on his New York form from last year, and I’ve never been full sold on Runningwscissors going this far, especially against a tough open company field like this. My top pick is Ocean Atlantique (#6). While he did win a stakes on synthetic back in early 2023, he generally hasn’t been quite as effective on that surface. He ran poorly in 3 starts on synthetic this past winter, but his surrounding turf form is actually quite good. He ran well to just miss by a length in a tougher spot at Keeneland last October after going 3-wide around both turns. He then won at Churchill with an excellent 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure before that series of synthetic starts. Some might view his last race, getting back on turf at Keeneland, as evidence that he’s tailing off, but he actually ran pretty well in that spot against a tougher field than this. He was again wide on both turns and was still finishing well into a race that featured blue color-coded TimeformUS pace figures, indicating a slow pace. Furthermore, a couple of horses have already run well out of that race, including Master Piece, who was also pace-compromised and returned to win the Fort Marcy with a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This time Ocean Atlantique finds himself in a paceless affair, and I expect him to get a more aggressive ride from Luis Saez.
Fair Value:
#6 OCEAN ATLANTIQUE, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 10
I suppose Pitch Clock (#2) will go favored in this spot, as most handicappers project her to take a step forward in her second start off the layoff. Yet Chad Brown runners are usually ready to fire off freshenings, and she was just a little dull last time. She was setting a slow pace and had every chance to put that field away before tiring late. There’s little doubt in my mind that Sweet Mystery (#3) ran the better race. Perhaps she doesn’t have as much upside as Pitch Clock, but her running style may suit this assignment better. Bon Adieu (#9) is likely to prevent Pitch Clock from getting to the front here. That filly did rate and win when she broke her maiden, but I don’t trust her to make that trip work against a tougher field. I almost put Sweet Mystery on top, but I’ve tried her before and she often settles for minor awards. I also had the nagging feeling that this was just a very weak race for the level, which made me want to consider a bigger price. Whistler’s Style (#1) is one of just two horses racing for the $50k tag, but even that seems a little ambitious for a horse claimed at the $16k level three starts ago. However, digging deeper into her form, I don’t think she’s as overmatched as it might appear at first glance. She earned speed figures that makes her competitive here winning twice at this distance earlier this year. Since the claim by Orlando Noda, she was badly compromised by rating and racing wide in a paceless affair two back. Then last time she got the wrong trip, as her jockey committed to the rail, and lost all momentum waiting for room that never materialized. She surely would have been second in that race without trouble. This is another step up, but it’s not as big a leap as the class level might suggest. She has prior form that puts her in the mix and she’s supposed to get more pace ahead of her this time.
Fair Value:
#1 WHISTLER'S STYLE, at 6-1 or greater
