TimeformUS Race Analysis (2024)

Picks & Plays for Sunday, July 9

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 6 - 8 - 5 - 7
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 5: 9 - 4 - 10 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 8 - 9
Race 7: 7 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 7 - 10
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 6 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

Grab the Glory (#8) was part of a heavily favored entry on debut, and it’s not quite clear which half of the pair was attracting more of that support. She showed some speed from the gate but was taken in hand soon after. She appeared to be traveling well into the lane and only produced a mild stretch kick. Now she returns with that start under her belt for Linda Rice, who is 8 for 37 (22%, $2.01 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. She would be no surprise if she took a step forward, and is probably the horse to beat as she goes out for the meet’s leading barn. Nicky Jolene (#3) finished a half-length ahead of Grab the Glory last time and I didn’t think she had a major excuse. She got first run on that rival and was just making up mild ground at the very end as the winner was coming back to the field. I was more interested in some fresher faces as alternatives. I wouldn’t fault anyone for giving a look to first time starters in here. Tough Love Torres (#4) obviously makes sense based on pedigree for Mike Maker, though that barn doesn’t have the best numbers with juvenile debut runners in turf sprints. Find Your Joy (#5) is another one who is bred to handle turf sprinting, and Tom Morley and Javier Castellano did team up for a two-year-old debut winner on grass earlier in the meet. My top pick is a horse switching to this surface for the first time. Play Free Bird (#6) lacked early speed in the debut and raced a bit greenly towards the back of the pack, bearing out on the turn in a reaction to kickback. She stayed on at one pace through the lane even as the leader was tiring late. New sire Maximus Mischief has yet to compile much of a record on turf, but Into Mischief is a solid influence. The dam was 0 for 6 and lost her only turf attempt. She’s produced one winner from 3 foals to race, none winning on grass. There is sneaky turf pedigree in this female family. The dam is a full-sister to Icy Atlantic, a Grade 2 stakes winner on turf who nearly $1 million, and is a half-sister to Wild Promises, another multiple stakes winner on grass. It’s interesting that Rosario gets aboard this time, and she’ll be a price.

Fair Value:
#6 PLAY FREE BIRD, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 2

The favorites look pretty suspect to me in this conditioned claimer.Liberty Flame (#2) is probably a more deserving favorite as she drops and turns back to a more appropriate distance. But she’s also a little tough to trust as she switches back to the apprentice. I want to look at the bigger prices. Simple Sugar (#1) exits the same race as Liberty Flame, and was ridden aggressively to chase that foe early before fading. Turning back will also suit her, and she has some upside second off the layoff. My top pick is Sweet as Sugar (#3). Lolita Shivmangal is an underrated trainer who can surprise with longshots on this circuit. The filly had displayed decent form for Jeremiah Englehart last year before going the wrong way. She didn’t get the right trip first off the claim for this back in March, and then was again shuffled back in the early stages last time before launching a strong late rally. She now returns from a layoff, but is catching a soft field and may be capable of better if she can regain her tactical speed.

Fair Value:
#3 SWEET AS SUGAR, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 3

I’ll keep this simple. There is absolutely no one in this race that I would want to bet outside of Idea Generation (#2). Her rivals have all had their chances and appear to have limited upside at this point. They also lack early speed, and she looks like she has a huge tactical advantage. I know her speed figures look a little lower due to the fact that she only raced as a 2-year-old, but she’s supposed to be awfully tough for this field to handle with any kind of routine improvement. She would be a key horse in multi-race wagers.

Fair Value:
#2 IDEA GENERATION, at 1-1 or greater

RACE 4

Luna Warrior (#7) looks pretty formidable on paper off his runner-up finish at this level last time. He chased an honest pace and just got run down going 7 furlongs, so this turnback to 6 furlongs figures to suit him. There’s no doubt that he comes in with the best speed figures and will be tough if able to repeat that last performance. However, he’s lost some races that he was supposed to win before, and tends to shorten stride approaching the wire regardless of distance. He also could find himself having to chase the quick Kasimba (#4), who tries turf for the first time. That one has a bit of grass pedigree, but I was still more interested in some others. Lawful (#3) finished well behind Luna Warrior last time, but I didn’t think he got the best ride from Flavien Prat. This horse didn’t break that badly but then was taken far out of contention early. He followed some bigger prices into the far turn showing no urgency until the field got into the lane. When Lawful was finally asked for run, he actually made up a lot of ground to get up for fourth, but the two leaders had gotten too far away. I expect he’s not going to be as far back this time as he cuts back in distance and Prat retains the mount. I liked some of his races at Gulfstream, and this feels like a more appropriate distance. I also wouldn’t totally discount Bill of Rights (#2), who exits that same race. He, too, was pretty far back in the early stages. He didn’t make up nearly as much ground as Lawful in the stretch, but he was also ridden pretty conservatively that day, like a horse who might have needed the start. There appears to be some substance to this gelding and I would expect him to show up with a better effort this time.

Fair Value:
#3 LAWFUL, at 5-2 or greater
#2 BILL OF RIGHTS, at 11-1 or greater

RACE 6

Paratus (#7) will probably go favored again after just missing at this level last time. However, I thought he was really supposed to win that race. The pace wasn’t exactly quick, but the race played fairly and he had every chance to get there in the stretch. Like in his start two back, he just seemed to stall a bit in the last eighth of a mile, and that’s a concern with a runner who will be a short price again. General’s Duty (#8) finished just behind Paratus in that tougher spot two back and seems like a candidate to move forward second off the layoff. However, he possesses that same plodding running style and I’m not totally convinced he possesses the turn of foot to run them all down. Ghostlyprince (#1) finished behind Paratus in that June 15 affair, but his trip is worth watching. He seemingly had plenty of run at the quarter pole after saving ground, but his rider made little effort to get him into the clear, just sitting like a statue until the eighth pole. He finally asked him for run and the horse responded but simply ran out of real estate. He’s better than that result and I think he’s dangerous, likely to work out another ground-saving trip. My top pick is Mighty Atlas (#4), who might just be dropping to the right level for the first time. His turf debut might not look like much on paper, but I thought he showed some affinity for the surface that day. He was taken well off the pace early and got a pretty good ground-saving trip until the top of the stretch. While he was only passing tired runners late, I thought he lengthened his stride nicely through the lane, and did well to only finish 4 lengths behind second-place in a race dominated by a runaway winner. Now he gets blinkers, so hopefully he can stay a bit more engaged early.

Fair Value:
#4 MIGHTY ATLAS, at 5-1 or greater
#1 GHOSTLYPRINCE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

You’re My Girl (#3) is a class standout as she returns from the layoff in this New York-bred allowance affair. She proved that her 14-length debut win was no fluke when her connections ambitiously stepped her up into the Grade 1 Frizette last year. She set the pace that day and gamely battled winner Chocolate Gelato all the way to the wire. Althought she failed to hit the board in the Breeders' Cup, it's not like she was disgraced against a competitive field. She has to cut back to 6 furlongs off the layoff, but she appears to be working well for the return. John Terranova is 10 for 28 (36%, $3.70 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on dirt over the past 5 years. She gets Lasix for the first time and doesn’t need the lead to be successful. That’s good news, because there is plenty of early speed in this field. Miss Stones (#1) and Tosconova Beauty (#2)should have intentions to make the front, and there are even others who could press the issue early. The only true deep closer in the field is Fancy Feline (#8), and she is one that I would want to use, especially underneath if this pace comes apart. Fancy Feline was allowed to lose contact with the field last time, but she’s generally better when she can stay a bit more engaged early. She’s had excuses and should get the right setup. My top pick is I’mhavingamoment (#7), who isn’t as obvious of an off-the-pace type. Yet I do think that John Velazquez will just be forced to adopt a mid-pack position given all the speed in here. I don’t care too much about her turf races, as she did show ability on dirt early in her career. She had to deal with some greenness issues through her early races, lugging in a couple of times. Yet I thought she ran especially well in that Mar. 17 race, and then was against a dead rail when glued to the inside on Apr. 16. Her overall dirt form is better than it looks, and I don’t mind her turning back.

Fair Value:
#7 I'MHAVINGAMOMENT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

A few runners in this field exit the June 11 race at this level won by Peg’s A. K. Girl. Dontmesswithtess (#10) did put in a solid late run that day considering that the pace was on the slow side, bouncing back from a disappointing performance two back. However, now she draws the far outside post and picks up Irad Ortiz, so she’s unlikely to be much of a price. I’m more interested in others from that affair. Except Temptation (#7) closed decently for third, pairing up solid efforts at the level. She’s not really a winning type at 1 for 23 lifetime, but there isn’t much to knock about her current form. Though the most interesting horse from that June 11 affair is probably Cumberland Falls (#1). She got pretty keen around the clubhouse turn and into the backstretch, forcing Flavien Prat to angle her outside, and then to inevitably make an early move. She raced without cover from there and predictably flattened out late after briefly challenging. She figures to get a better trip this time breaking from the rail, and the slight turnback should suit this 3-year-old filly. Yet I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Some might dismiss Stella Mars (#2) off the claim for connections that aren’t known for winning on this circuit, especially on turf. Yet this 5-year-old certainly fits on form. She ran well at this level last year, clearly needed a start sprinting off the layoff, and moved forward to break through against conditioned claimers last time. She only won by a neck, but she was much the best after getting held up in traffic until the top of the lane. As for this trainer switch, Naipaul Chatterpaul’s runners do tend to outrun their odds even if they don’t win that often. Stella Mars draws well, gets a capable rider, and figures to be the right price.

Fair Value:
#2 STELLA MARS, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, July 8

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 7 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 10 - 9
Race 7: 4 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 9: 5 - 8 - 3 - 11
Race 10: 3 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 11: 3 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 12: 5 - 6 - 12 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 3

Perhaps Doral (#4) will finally break through after finishing second in 3 of her 4 starts. She obviously has the ability to win a race like this, but she’s lacked that final push to put her over the top in her races. She’s also flattened out in her last couple of starts, which might explain why Bill Mott is now trying to turn her back in distance. However, he is just 1 for 25 ($0.39 ROI) with maidens going from routes to sprints on turf over the past 5 years. I was more interested in some other options with greater upside. There are a couple of second time starters worth considering. The more obvious one is Party Is Over (#7), who looked like she got an educational debut at Monmouth in late May. She was reserved towards the pack early and encountered some minor traffic in upper stretch, but she was really finishing with interest once finally asked for her best in the last furlong. She goes out for dangerous connections and shouldn’t mind a little added ground. My top pick is Romeinaday (#2), who figures to be a much bigger price. This filly didn’t attract much support on debut, going off at 43-1. Yet the connections paid quite a bit for her last year, and I think we saw some hints of talent in that first start. She was conservatively ridden through the early stages at the back of the pack. Yet she started to make progress into the lane and was really finishing down the center of the course late, albeit left with too much to do, and then galloped out strongly alongside the winner past the wire. I think we’re going to see a better effort his time, and John Terranova has strong numbers with his second time starters.

Fair Value:
#2 ROMEINADAY, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 5

He can obviously win at what figures to be a very short price, but I just can’t bring myself to support Charge It (#4) as a prohibitive favorite. This horse is so untrustworthy, and just hasn’t been able to recapture the brilliance that we saw out of him last year in the Dwyer. It’s true that his Met Mile was a fine effort, as he was never beating Cody’s Wish and still earned a strong speed figure for his fourth-place effort. However, he was again his own worst enemy, failing to quickly get into top gear out of the gate and putting himself out of position early. He almost has to be in front this time, but I’m still not convinced that he’s truly cut out for this 1 1/4 miles distance. I’m trying to beat him with Unbridled Bomber (#5). I know, I know – big surprise, I’m president of the Unbridled Bomber Fan Club. However, I do think there’s a legitimate case to be made for him here. He obviously improved a great deal last fall when winning a pair of allowance races, including one at 1 3/16 miles. He then took another step forward with that 9-length victory in April, where he displayed vastly improved tactical speed to dominate a field with a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Some will point out that he failed to deliver in his two most recent stakes attempts without Lasix. Yet he had other excuses for those efforts. James Ryerson noted that he had a setback going into the Queens County, and he was returning on just 3 weeks’ rest last time in the Westchester. Now he’s had more time between starts, picks up Irad Ortiz, and is supposed to sit a perfect stalking trip just outside of the favorite. I would use him with Clapton (#3), who is often underrated and seems like a candidate to get overlooked again despite the fact that he's been in great form.

Fair Value:
#5 UNBRIDLED BOMBER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

I don’t have a major issue with the favorites in this race. Weekend Rags (#9) ran pretty well going 7 furlongs last time and should appreciate this slight cutback in distance. Loon Cry (#10) took a few tries to break her maiden, but she’s run well in both turf starts and exits a pretty live race. They both make plenty of sense, but they come in with exposed form and I think a couple of alternative are a bit more interesting. Royal Dancer (#4) finished two lengths behind Weekend Rags last time going 7 furlongs, but she looked like one that was still racing herself into fitness. She held a bit better than she had in her return from the layoff, and I think she might be set for another step forward here on the turnback. Michelle Nevin is 13 for 48 (27%, $2.32 ROI) third off a 120-240 day layoff over the past 5 years. My top pick is Sikum (#6). This mare has switched back and forth between surfaces recently, but I think she’s a much better grass horse. She lost both starts at this level earlier in the spring, but had difficult trips each time. On April 22, she was steadied on the backstretch in April before making a good late run to just miss. She then got badly sandwiched between rivals and pushed out of position at the start two back but still ran on for fourth. She’s getting a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis, and trainer Jose Camejo is 9 for 29 ($2.46 ROI) off 7 to 14 day layoffs on turf over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 SIKUM, at 6-1 or greater
#4 ROYAL DANCER, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, July 7

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 2 - 7 - 6 - 8
Race 2: 2 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 9 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 7 - 9 - 6 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 10: 9 - 6 - 4 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

A pair of speedy fillies are likely to vie for favoritism in this two-year-old maiden affair, but both will be trying turf for the first time. Permed (#4) seems likely to attract support after leading until the final stages of her debut on dirt last month. She’s bred to handle turf, by solid influence Street Boss out of a dam who was best on grass. However, you still have to take a short price to find out if she can improve on this surface. She’s Fire (#3) is the other obvious contender switching surfaces for her second start. Kevin Rice hasn’t had as much success on this circuit as others in the Rice family, but he does well out of town, and it would appear that this filly has been targeted at this race with some intention. She got in a prep at Presque Isle over the synthetic course, and showed good speed before getting overhauled by the favorite. Yet it’s not as if she threw in the towel, as the two of them drew nearly 10 lengths clear of the rest. The turf pedigree isn’t quite as obvious with her, but Jose Ortiz hops aboard and she comes in with one of the fastest speed figures. I’m most interested in a different second time starter who should be a slightly better price. Smooth Waves (#2) made her debut on turf last month and could only manage to finish fifth, beaten over 6 lengths. However, the performance was better than the bare result. She was pretty green through the early stages of that race, seemingly uncomfortable racing among horses. She then got keen approaching the quarter pole and had trouble finding a clear path in the lane. She still finished with good interest all things considered. She also deserves extra credit for making up some ground, since all of the early pace figures for that race are color-coded blue in TimeformUS, indicating a slow pace. DRF Formulator reveals that Mike Maker is 6 for 16 (38%, $5.75 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. I’m expecting a step forward this time. There are also some first time starters to consider, but beating all of the experienced runners could be a difficult task. Among those, Sea Dancer (#8) is a half-sister to talented turf performer Johannes and goes out for William Morey, who is capable with firsters. Perhaps most interesting from a value standpoint is Greavette (#10), who attracts Joel Rosario for low-profile connections and impressed breezing 10-flat at the OBS sale earlier this year. I could use both with my top pick.

Fair Value:
#2 SMOOTH WAVES, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 3

I don’t have a major problem with either Fancy Joke (#3) or Security Code (#5), but they both figure to be short prices despite the fact that neither one looks so formidable on paper. Fancy Joke seemingly has more upside in just the fourth start of her career. Yet she’s stepping up in class off an N1X victory and could face some pace pressure this time. Security Code did finish ahead of her when they met on April 16, but may have been better suited to that race’s 7-furlong distance. They both make sense, but I’d rather take Silver Fist (#4) at a better price. She’s also moving up after winning at the N1X level in her last dirt race, but the 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned compares very favorable to those of the two favorites. I also think her turf race last time was encouraging, since she put forth a competitive effort despite not really appreciating that surface. Her recent good efforts have come over wet tracks, but she ran a nice race going this distance last July at Saratoga on fast going. She’s worked well recently and is usually a fair price.

Fair Value:
#4 SILVER FIST, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

Thank You Jon (#8) could attract support after running a decent race as the favorite last time, when he was always out of position after a poor start. I suppose that troubled trip makes him a contender here, but he could attract support again with Irad Ortiz getting aboard, and I don’t trust him at a short price. I would rather take Twirling Vine (#7) from that race, since he ran well off the layoff and figures to fly under the radar for low-profile connections. Yet I still prefer runners coming from different spots. My top pick is Nobilis (#2), who showed some talent in his career debut last summer at Saratoga when chasing home subsequent stakes winner Arctic Arrogance. He didn’t run as well in his second start, but didn’t get the most comfortable trip, as his rider eased back on the backstretch and then overcommitted to the rail. He returned from a layoff for new trainer Mark Hennig last time in the slop against a tough field and ran better than the result indicates. Again drawing the inside, he got shuffled back into the far turn. Yet he was staying on well once finally switched to the outside late. I’m hoping that Dylan Davis can avoid getting trapped inside this time, as I think the horse possesses the ability to break through at this level. I slightly prefer him to Seize the City (#3) from that race, though the Michelle Giangiulio runner did show improved tactical speed in his second start. I liked Seize the City’s debut, where he broke slowly and made some good late progress. The slight turnback should suit him. I could also make a case for Chalky Cat (#4), who ran better than it might appear in both starts this winter after breaking slowly each time. However, I wonder if this is a prep for the turf at Saratoga given his recent work pattern.

Fair Value:
#2 NOBILIS, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

I suppose Paros (#4) will attract some support as he tries to win his second start in a row since switching back to turf for Linda Rice. It’s unwise to dismiss anything from this barn too readily, but I’d be inclined to let this one beat me. He got a perfect trip last time and I’m still not totally sold on the quality of the field he beat. Senbei (#5) makes his turf debut here as he seeks to get back on track after a series of disappointing results. He actually has enough turf pedigree, and he gives the impression of one that should handle this surface. However, I'm a little concerned about his recent tendency to break slowly, and 7 furlongs could be a stretch for him, even on this surface. Maxwell Esquire (#6) figures to take money with Irad Ortiz getting aboard. He returned from the layoff in solid form last time, checking in third at this level after making an early move into contention. Now he has to stretch out to 7 furlongs, but he's run well going this far before. I think the horse to beat is Pine Knoll (#9), who finished just ahead of Maxwell Esquire last time. He closed well into a moderate pace to finish second behind runaway winner Outlaw Kid at this level last time. This 6-year-old was cutting all the way back to 6 furlongs after spending much of his career focused on route races. He handled the cutback pretty well, but simply hit his best stride too late. This 7-furlong trip should be more to his liking, and he figures to be much more forwardly placed this time after all the scratches. I think he deserves to be the clear favorite, and I'm not sure he's going to attract that level of support.

Fair Value:
#9 PINE KNOLL, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 7

While I acknowledge that Truly Quality (#7) is one of the main contenders in this race, he just looks ripe to get overbet for connections that typically take money with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard. He ran well to close for second in his Indiana debut, and basically ran to a similar level in his second start when returning in just 11 days. However, now he’s being asked to stretch out and it’s not as if he has some significant edge over this field based on his races going shorter. Fly Right (#4) ran well off the layoff last time when settling for second behind the highly impressive debut winner Redistricting. He kept strong company as a 2-year-old and might actually be getting some class relief here. I’m just not totally convinced that 10 furlongs is the right distance for him. Headline News (#2) seems like a strong win candidate here as he makes second start for Jimmy Toner. That trainer is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career, and this gelding ran like one that might appreciate a little more ground on debut. He got a big keen in the early stages, but ultimately settled and was finishing with real determination through the final furlong. I also won’t be surprised if he shows more speed form the rail this time. My top pick is Swore (#8). This lightly raced 4-year-old is light on speed figures, but I thought he ran pretty well in his turf debut last time at Delaware. That was obviously a weaker field than this one, but he had significant trouble soon after the start. He actually broke in mid-pack, but got completely sawed off in the first furlong, steadied to the back. He launched a wide run on the far turn and sustained it through the wire despite lugging in a bit. I suspect he possesses better tactical speed than we saw that day, and Graham Motion has good stats second off a layoff in turf routes.

Fair Value:
#8 SWORE, at 5-1 or greater
#2 HEADLINE NEWS, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8

I’m somewhat against likely favorite Devil’s Cay (#1), who drops in class while making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. Rice has done well with her recent Kentucky claims, but I’m not thrilled with the prior form of this gelding. He’s a speed type who lands in a spot with plenty of other front-runners, and I thought others were more interesting at better prices. I actually think the horse to beat is Pressure (#6). He was competing against tougher allowance company when he first came into the Rudy Rodriguez barn, and he ran better than the result might suggest when he dropped last time. A mile is simply too far for him, and he hung in there until the last furlong. Playingwithmatches (#9) is another getting some class relief as he drops out of allowance and starter races. He proved last time that he’s simply not a turf horse, but he ran fine in a deceptively strong spot two back. This drop in class seems realistic for a horse who broke his maiden for a $40k tag. My top pick is Copper Chalice (#7). This gelding has obviously been uncompetitive since he won his debut at a huge price in 2020. Yet he’s been placed in some pretty tough spots along the way. He faced much stronger allowance competition in 2021 and didn’t even run that badly in his last two attempts at that level. He got in a turf prep last time at that same level, and now he drops in class while cutting back to an appropriate distance on dirt. He fits on speed figures and doesn’t figures to take too much money for low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#7 COPPER CHALICE, at 6-1 or greater
#9 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

The three obvious favorites all make sense in this Manila, and they look pretty hard to separate at first glance. Major Dude (#5) is arguably the most reliable option, since he typically shows up with a competitive effort, and seems to appreciate this one-mile distance. Yet his form is pretty exposed at this point, and I’m not sure that he really deserves to be as short as he’s likely to be. I have a similar feeling about Nagirroc (#4), who benefited from an absolutely perfect trip when he earned his top speed figure last time in the J. W. Murphy. This distance also suits him, but he’s stepping up into a much tougher spot, and I think we’ve already seen his best. Talk of the Nation (#2) is the one that may be slightly underrated after he lost as the favorite last time the Jersey Derby. He had an excuse that day, as he was coming off an unplanned layoff after getting scratched at the gate of the American Turf in early May. He also got keen in the early stages of that race chasing a fast pace, and was run down by a winner who benefited from the race flow. At his best, I think he’s the most naturally talented runner in this field. Yet I want to go in a different direction with a colt who could fly under the radar. More Than Looks (#3) got a poor trip on debut, but has progressed with each start since then, especially since getting stretched out in distance. He broke slowly and got a little keen in the early stages of that Apr. 28 allowance event, but he still unleashed a strong late rally to just miss. He put it all together last time when attaining better early position and closing furiously into a slow pace to get up on the wire. His speed figures don’t quite match up with the main players, but he gives off the vibe of an overachiever, and will be trying hard late if within range of the leaders at the eighth pole. The price should be fair given the supposed strength of the favorites.

Fair Value:
#3 MORE THAN LOOKS, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, June 25

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 9 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 8: 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 9 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

I don’t have a major problem with either favorite in this opener, other than the fact that they figure to be short prices in a weak race for the level. Short Shift (#1) did earn her highest speed figure on turf last time, but her lone dirt performance is better than it looks. She blew the start that day and raced keenly down the backstretch while advancing along the rail. I thought her rider overcommitted to the inside path on a day when you probably didn’t want to be right on top of the rail. She still has some upside in just her third start. Foxy Cara (#5) ran a race two back that would make her pretty tough here if she were able to repeat it. She ran better than it appears last time when she lost significant momentum on the turn before rallying again in the lane. However, now she’s stretching out to a mile and I’m not totally convinced that added ground suits her. My top pick is Ichiban (#4). This filly ran like one that just needed the experience in her debut at Fair Grounds. She took some money when she switched into the Linda Rice barn two back, and ran better than the result suggests. She was contesting the pace while racing along the rail during a time when the inside path was a disadvantage at Aqueduct. She faded along the inside in upper stretch, but was still trying late once Lezcano angled her off it. I don’t care about the turf race last time, and I suspect she’s more of a dirt route type. Her early speed should play well in this limited field.

Fair Value:
#4 ICHIBAN, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2

Collaboration (#1) crossed the wire first at this level last time, but was controversially disqualified from victory for some bumping in mid-stretch. She still put in a strong performance to be first at the finish, as she survived a strong early pace and was still running on at the end. This filly really hasn’t run a bad race in any of her turf starts, and a repeat of that last effort will make her tough for this group to handle. She could face some early pressure from La Conquistadora this time, but it’s not as if she needs to the lead to be successful. Yet I prefer a different horse out of that May 29 affair. Sals Dream Girl (#2) wasn’t quite this class last year, but she really improved over the winter at Gulfstream, running well in a series of turf and synthetic starter allowance races. She came back off a brief freshening to return to NY-bred company last time, and put in a decent performance. After dropping pretty far back in the early stages, she still had plenty to do at the top of the stretch. Yet she really hit her best stride in the last furlong and was flying through the wire in a race that held together up front despite a fast pace. Now she draws well for this slight stretch-out, and may not have to come from as far back in this more compact field. The other horse that I considered is Snowy Evening (#3), who stretches out from 7 furlongs, having never routed on turf before. I like the way she’s been progressing through her maiden races, but she would probably have to improve going further to have a winning chance.

Fair Value:
#2 SALS DREAM GIRL, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4

There are obviously some runners with upward potential in this optional claimer, but I would be wary of a couple that seem like they could get overbet. Program Trading (#7) seems likely to go favored after an impressive debut victory at Monmouth last month. It took him a little while to find his best stride on the turn, but he really exploded away from that field once he straightened up and hit top gear. This son of Lope de Vega might have a future, but he feels like one that is going to get bet based on potential, even as he’s meeting a much tougher field. Among his main rivals are Scramble (#5) and Operation Torch (#2). I view Scramble as the more reliable option, since he just shows up with a competitive effort every time he’s led over. Operation Torch might garner support off his trip last time, where he got extremely rank in the early stages and made a premature move down the backstretch. However, that lack of professionalism could be even more of an issue here in what seems like a paceless affair. Lachaise (#4) is another to consider, but he could take money as he drops out of stakes events. I didn’t think he did that much running off the layoff last time, as he got a perfect trip in the Pennine Ridge but had little acceleration in the stretch. I want to go in a different direction with Baby Billy (#3). This gelding has only run on the turf twice. He broke his maiden against a decent field at Gulfstream in February, making a strong rally up the inside before holding off a late surge from the talented Mondego. He subsequently changed surfaces a few times, but his lone other turf effort is better than his result indicates. He was locked in behind rivals in a race dominated up front and was actually closing well through the lane despite having to search for running room. We have seen others who were pace compromised in that race come back to improve, and I think he can do the same as he gets back on turf.

Fair Value:
#3 BABY BILLY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5

I found this $32k claimer to be absolutely wide open, so my general feeling is that I want to keep an open mind with regard to multiple price options. I also want to avoid horses who seem liable to get overbet. Lastchanceatglory (#8) obviously make plenty of sense. He maintained solid form through a series of barn changes, but now he’s returning from a layoff after getting claimed by Linda Rice four months ago. I wanted to look elsewhere for some bigger prices. Two Thirty Five (#1) is trying to find the right class level. He easily won a weaker $25k off the turf race two back, but was then overmatched against tougher last time at the $50k level. This drop in class should suit him, and he didn’t even run that badly against some strong rivals off the claim for Oscar Barrera. Little Demon (#7) is trying to get back on track after going off form for David Jacobson, which is a bit of a concern, since the Jacobson barn has been on a strong run lately. However, he does have the quality to beat a field like this at his best, and now he’s first off the claim for Antonio Arriaga, who does good work with this move. My top pick is Rocco Strong (#9). This horse has run well enough to be competitive at this level in the past, and now he’s trying to get back on track after a rough year that saw him miss a lot of time. He actually ran better than it might look in that allowance race at Delaware last summer, and he subsequently caught a tougher field at this level in October. He was then off for more time, but he took a step forward in his return last time. That race featured a fast pace, and he was chasing the leader before staying on gamely in the lane. I think he’s a candidate to move forward second off the layoff, and I’m encouraged that Carlos Martin moves him up in class.

Fair Value:
#9 ROCCO STRONG, at 9-1 or greater
#7 LITTLE DEMON, at 8-1 or greater
#1 TWO THIRTY FIVE, at 11-1 or greater

RACE 7

I don’t have a major argument against Moonage Daydream (#8) being the horse to beat in this state-bred allowance. She showed talent as a two-year-old, winning the Steward Manor last fall. She hasn’t won again in three starts since returning from a layoff earlier this year, but she’s made some mild progress each time, gradually improving her TimeformUS Figures. She’s a threat here with a repeat of the 106 she earned for her runner-up finish at this level last time. I do have some mild concerns about the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she’s obviously a contender. One potential advantage that Moonage Daydream has over this field is her tactical speed in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. It’s one reason why I want to downgrade a confirmed deep closer like New Ginya (#3). I don’t love turf turnbacks like this in general, and she can be pretty pace dependent. Among the other late runners, the one I would be most willing to consider is Dream Central (#4), who did have to alter course when lacking a clear path in upper stretch last time. That was just her first start back off a layoff, and she did run well going this distance last year. However, she’s another who lacks any early speed. I’m more interested in a couple of bigger prices who can attain more forward position. I imagine that Kendrick Carmouche will try to use Road to Remember (#1) from the inside this time. It didn’t quite work out in her last start when she was shuffled back soon after the start, but she does possess the speed to get forward. The big question for her is the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, but she’s a daughter of stamina influence Bellamy Road, so it’s very possible she could handle it. My top pick is Silken Dollar (#7). This filly broke her maiden going this distance last spring at Belmont before trying both shorter and longer trips while switching surfaces during the remainder of the year. I think she’s confirmed at this point that she’s definitely a turf horse, but she appears to be one with some distance limitations. She was just barely able to get the mile when she hung on to win last November. She’s routed twice since returning from a layoff this season. She earned a competitive speed figure two back, and then didn’t get the chance to put forth a true effort last time. She got steadied and checked pretty badly in the early stages of that race, putting her out of position. She possesses better tactical speed than that, and I expect to see her get a more aggressive ride with Manny Franco hopping back aboard.

Fair Value:
#7 SILKEN DOLLAR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

There are some pretty talented New York-breds entered to contest this Dancin Renee. Rossa Veloce (#2) has been in great form since the claim by Rob Atras, and arguably does deserve to be favored here. Yet she’s best when she can control up front and Grannys Connection (#5) figures to challenge her in the early stages. The daughter of Connect is a new face on the scene, having registered four consecutive victories by large margins. She’s run competitive speed figures but has been facing much weaker company in those races, so she gets a serious class test here. She’s drawn well outside of her main pace rival and still has upside. Sterling Silver (#4) and Betsy Blue (#6) are a bit more appealing to me as late runners. The former showed quality last year when placing in a series of graded stakes events. She was overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup and probably needed a start off the layoff this year. Yet she’s recently come back into top form, and the cutback in distance shouldn’t bother her. Betsy Blue is the model of consistency, having finished in the exacta in 18 of her 22 lifetime starts. Yet she was tailing off a bit when last seen this winter, putting in a dull effort in the Broadway. She had registered two consecutive stakes victories prior to that, and has a right to get back on track here for Linda Rice off the layoff. My top pick at a bigger price is Kant Hurry Love (#7). She really blossomed over the winter, continuing to improve for trainer David Duggan after being transferred to his stable in January. She won a pair of NY-bred allowance races in impressive fashion before moving up to open company. She then lost a heartbreaking nose decision in February, overcoming a poor start to nearly get the win. She has to improve her speed figures a bit to beat the favorites here, but I thought she ran better than the result suggests last time. She didn’t seem to appreciate getting rated behind a slow pace, and then seemed discouraged when angled inside in the lane. She’s shown some hints of possessing this kind of talent, and now is drawn well on the outside.

Fair Value:
#7 KANT HURRY LOVE, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

The horse to beat in here is probably Mauritius (#1), who has really taken a step forward with the switch to turf. He did well to close through traffic two back, even though that’s not his preferred style. He showed better early speed last time and just couldn’t quite hold on against a solid rival. I did think he ran better than today’s foe Legendary Lore (#9), who finished just a nose behind him that day. Legendary Lore got a perfect ground-saving trip and was just picking up pieces at the end. They both make sense, but I’m committed to going in a different direction. I’ve been waiting for Watasha (#6) to stretch back out in distance, and now he’s finally getting a chance as he makes his first start off the claim for a new barn. Mike Maker has a knack for identifying horses who can go longer, and Watasha has run better than it might appear in both of his turf races. He was competing in a deceptively strong maiden event on the turf when he tried it as a 3-year-old. He finally got back on the surface last time, but did so in a 6-furlong sprint, which is just too short for him. He was reserved far back in the early stages, but was flying through the lane in a race that was dominated by front-runners. I like the added ground for him, and he can be more forwardly placed at this distance.

Fair Value:
#6 WATASHA, at 4-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, June 24

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 9 - 8 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 1A - 4
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 1
Race 10: 4 - 2 - 12 - 10

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

I don’t have a major issue with likely favorite No Show Sammy Jo (#9), other than the fact that she’s pretty obvious. This filly didn’t attract much tote support on debut, but always traveled well and made some good late progress in a paceless event. The runner-up returned from that race to win her next start, and it appears to have been a field of some quality. She looks like one that shouldn’t mind a little added ground, but Graham Motion has just mediocre stats with maiden second time starters in turf routes. The Tony Dutrow entry could also take some money, but I wasn’t thrilled with either of his runners. La Mazel (#1A) looks like the stronger half, but she was picking up pieces after getting a great trip into a quick pace last time. Others appear to have more upside. Idle Chatter (#8) is mildly interesting. This half-sister to multiple G1 winner and Ky Oaks champ Princess of Sylmar debuted at Gulfstream on turf. She overcame a poor start to pick up pieces with a nice late run through the pack, but benefited from a fast pace in a race that fell apart. She was far more aggressive in her second start, and actually went into a clear lead at the top of the stretch before hitting a wall in the late stages. She has to reserve her speed a bit better this time if she's to be successful. Given that I’m not thrilled with the experienced runners, my top pick is first time starter Fizzy (#3). She’s by 9% debut sire Tapwrit, who has won with 9% of his turf route starters in a small sample. The dam’s only foal is solid turf and synthetic winner Tesoro. The dam is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes and Travers winner Tiz the Law ($2.7 million), but that runner does hail from more of a turf family. Todd Pletcher doesn’t have the best stats with these types, but she shows some decent workouts for the debut, including a few in company with recent maiden winner Mount Up. I saw video of her working at Saratoga last summer, and thought she moved like a turf horse. It seems like a good sign that Irad Ortiz takes the mount.

Fair Value:
#3 FIZZY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

Both of the expected favorites in this starter allowance are obviously win candidates, but I didn’t view either one as offering value at their expected short odds. I made the entry the slight ML favorite with My Sea Cottage (#1A) obviously being the stronger half of the pair. I had been skeptical of him getting the 1 1/16 miles distance last time and it proved to be his undoing, as he was unable to maintain his advantage after getting away with moderate early fractions. It’s a pretty drastic turnback, but he has run well sprinting before. Relate (#4) also turns back in distance after stretching out on turf following his maiden victory over this course and distance last year. He ran fine in both of his two-turn turf attempts, but he faded late each time after working out perfect ground-saving trips on the lead. I’m not as convinced of his overall quality, but this is a more appropriate spot. I’m just more interested in some others at bigger prices. King Moonracer (#8)has finished fifth in both starts since returning from a layoff this year, but I think he might have a step forward in him this time. He made a nice move to mid-stretch in his last start going 7 furlongs, and this slight turnback figures to suit him. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s going out for George Weaver, one of the hottest trainers at Belmont right now. My top pick is Jester’s Song (#2) as he makes his grass debut. The pedigree for turf is limited, as a couple of his siblings to try turf have not handled it. Yet he’s by decent turf influence Maclean’s Music, and I have always gotten the sense watching this horse run and train that he would appreciate a switch to the grass. He has a light frame and floating quality to his stride, which often translates well to turf. I saw video of him working on turf last summer at Saratoga for H. James Bond, and I really liked the way he moved over it. He didn’t run well first off the claim for Linda Rice, but I think he’s capable of better in this spot, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#2 JESTER'S SONG, at 6-1 or greater
#8 KING MOONRACER, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 6

ML favorite Breath Away (#8) hasn't run a bad race yet, finishing in the exacta in all four starts. However, I thought she beat a weaker field two back, and then last time I didn’t see a major excuse. She got pace to close into and was simply second best to a rival who closed a bit faster. She’s obviously a player, but she’s pace dependent and unlikely to offer value. Chad Brown has a pair of runners in this field, and the one that I prefer is Tax Implications (#2). This $356k Tattersalls purchase couldn’t have been more impressive in her debut at Monmouth last year. She was bet down to heavy favoritism in her second start, but was left with a bit too much to do in the stretch, and also worked against herself by trying to lug in through the late stages. She was given plenty of time off after that, but Chad Brown can have one ready off a layoff. I view her as the horse to beat, but there are a couple of bigger prices worth considering. Cecile (#5) is a new face with some potential as she ships in. She didn’t show much on dirt, but looked like a completely different filly when she got on the grass last time. A troubled start put her at the back of the pack early, but she unleashed a furious rally to pass the entire field in the lane. I don’t think she necessarily has to come from that far back, and she still has upside. My top pick is Im Just Kiddin (#4). This NY-bred filly showed immediate improvement when she got on turf last year, easily winning a sprint at Saratoga. She wasn’t effective when stretched out in the Miss Grillo, but her connections made an unwise decision to rate her in a race that was dominated up front. She then got a very conservative ride when she returned sprinting at Aqueduct in a race she probably could have won. Last time she was awarded the victory via disqualification, but was probably best anyway, not due to the minor bumping late but rather because she had to overcome a difficult wide draw and raced without cover throughout. She has talent and the one-turn mile distance should be perfect for her.

Fair Value:
#4 IM JUST KIDDIN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

This N1X allowance event is difficult to handicap, since few runners possess reliable form at the level. Possible favorite Pioneering Spirit (#7) is moving up in class off a pair of wins against weaker company, whereas his potential main rival So High (#1) is taking a huge drop in class out of the Grade 1 Manhattan. Between the two, I would prefer So High, who has held his own against better company on a few occasions. He’s not really a winning type, but he gets the distance and isn’t catching the toughest field for the level. Linda Rice sends out Royal Spirit in addition to the ML favorite, but I’m not thrilled with either of her runners. Both need to prove that they belong here exiting victories against softer starter allowance foes. I want to keep an open with regard to price here, so I would consider a horse like Basso (#5). He has been placed at a variety of distances, but he did handle 2 miles at Far Hills last year and recently got compromised by setting a fast pace at Monmouth. I considered putting him on top, but I just have more confidence in Mo Z (#8). This 4-year-old just feels like he’s found the right kind of spot off the extended layoff. He looks too slow on speed figures, but his last race when he broke his maiden on turf may be a lot better than it looks. The runner-up improved significantly in his next start, and the third-place finisher is subsequent Grade 2 turf winner Verstappen. Furthermore, this horse just looked like one that wanted to run all day in that race, staying on steadily with long, loping strides. He’s now with Christophe Clement, who immediately stretches him out off the layoff. Note that his Apr. 29 workout at Payson matches this barn’s Grade 1-placed turfer Soldier Rising. In a race that lacks convincing form, I want this new face.

Fair Value:
#8 MO Z, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 10

I generally wanted to avoid the horses exiting the May 18 race at this level when searching for value in this maiden claiming finale. A bunch of runners hit the wire together that day, and those races are usually of subpar quality. The winner Queens Over Threes did come back to run decently in her next start, but I still have some reservations about the race. Dance With Me Babe (#3) and Pauciloquent (#2) finished less than a length apart in third and fourth. The former was setting an honest pace before fading late and may have run the best race. Though Pauciloquent was probably taken too far off the pace, and she was finishing strongly in the late stages. Linarite (#12) is another who could take money as she drops in class out of an open company maiden claiming affair into this New York-bred race. She ran well at this level two back, and ran up to about the same level against slightly tougher last time. I’m just a little concerned about taking horse who doesn’t possess any early speed at a short price. My top pick is Mo Damorninggrouch (#4). This filly put in a good effort when second at this level at Saratoga last summer, and then got the wrong trip when she closed out her season at Aqueduct in the fall. She was racing wide after breaking from the outside post, chasing an extremely fast pace for the distance. She actually made some progress in upper stretch before tailing off late. She returned from the layoff last time at Belmont and again was compromised by a poor trip. She broke well from the outside, but was ridden without any urgency, allowed to drop back on the turn while following a tiring runner, always racing wide. She’s better than that, and I expect her to put in a more serious try second off the layoff switching into the barn of Patrick Reynolds.

Fair Value:
#4 MO DAMORNINGGROUCH, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, June 23

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 9 - 11 - 8 - 10
Race 7: 9 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 4 - 1A - 6 - 3
Race 9: 11 - 10 - 5 - 4

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

This state-bred optional claimer is a good exercise for trip handicappers, since 5 of the 6 runners entered for turf are coming out of the same race on May 28. Catch That Party (#3) was the 3-2 favorite on that occasion, and he’s likely to go off at a similar price again here despite finishing third. He surely ran the best race on that occasion, since he broke poorly and was reserved at the back of the pack behind a moderate pace. He launched a strong rally on the far turn, but just had too much ground to make up and couldn’t sustain his bid in the final sixteenth. The problem with this gelding is that he does have a tendency to break slowly, and there isn’t much pace signed on here. However, he might not have as much ground to make up in this smaller field. Ray Handal sends out his two main rivals, who also exit that May 28 event. Barrage (#2) finished ahead of Catch That Party, but I thought he had every chance to win that day. He did have to race 3-wide on the turns, so he covered more ground than some others. Yet he was in position to get the job done in mid-stretch and just a hung a bit in the late stages. My top pick is the other Ray Handal runner Agent Creed (#6). He saved more ground racing towards the inside on the turn, but was mildly hampered in the stretch. The horse clearly had some run and was starting to respond when Joel Rosario asked him to move. Yet Rosario chose to duck inside and the hole closed up at the eighth pole, forcing him to alter course and lose momentum. He probably wasn’t going to win the race, but it might have cost him a placing. That was his first start off a layoff, and he has a right to do better with that experience under his belt.

Fair Value:
#6 AGENT CREED, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 3

Pitch Clock (#6) looks like the horse to beat here as long as she handles the added distance. After a solid debut effort, she came back for her second start at Churchill against a very tough maiden field. She was ridden to the front that day and battled through swift fractions before coming under pressure at the quarter pole. While she was obviously no match for the runaway winner, she battled on gamely, finishing ahead of her other pace rivals. Horses have run back out of that race to validate the strong speed figure. I think she comes into this with the strongest form, but I’m not totally convinced that the added ground will work for her. The other Chad Brown trainee St. Benedicts Prep (#3) may be better suited to this spot. She finished well to complete the exacta on debut behind the talented Prank last summer at Saratoga. She then didn't fare as well in her second start before going to the shelf. She returned from a long layoff on turf last month and put in an even effort, handling the surface without showing any real improvement. Now it’s back to dirt going longer, and she has a pedigree that indicates she should get at least this far. My top pick is another filly that competed in that Sep. 4 race from Saratoga last year. Stunningly (#4) finished far behind winner Take Charge Briana that day, but her effort wasn’t as bad as it looks. She had good early position, but got steadied on the backstretch and then was shuffled out of the race while following a tiring foe around the turn. She was off for a long time and returned in April at Keeneland against a solid field. Reserved off the pace early, she encountered some traffic coming off the far turn. It took a while to find a clear path but was finishing with some interest across the wire. She seems like one that would be suited to the distance, and she may be better than she looks on paper.

Fair Value:
#4 STUNNINGLY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

Chasing Daylight (#2) figures to go favored once again despite losing as the 4-5 public choice at a lower level last time. This filly showed some talent on debut last year when winning a state-bred maiden special weight event going this distance. However, she bet a pretty weak field that day, and was off for a long time after that. She was basically eased upon returning in April before failing to get the job done for a lower claiming tag last time. Perhaps she has another step forward in her, but I’m reluctant to take another short price. I also have little interest in La Aguililla (#3), who drops out of tougher starter allowance races for David Jacobson. This barn has been dangerous lately, but I’m skeptical that this 7-year-old mare will improve with added distance. I want to go in a different direction, and I think a few of the runners drawn towards the outside are viable contenders. Juliana’s Rose (#5) makes sense as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. She ran a big race last December in the mud but hasn’t been able to get back to that form ever since. Her last effort is a bit of a concern, but the class relief could make a difference. Dashing Della (#4) figures to be a bigger price even as she gets a rider switch to Joel Rosario. She clearly didn’t handle the turf last time, but she had shown some ability in her prior starts. I didn’t think she got the right trip two back when she got keen making a middle move after a poor start. She can factor here with her best effort. My top pick is Into Happiness (#6). She’s another making her first start for a tag after a series of allowance tries. Her most recent performance was obviously pretty poor, but she might not want to go 9 furlongs, and that was a much tougher field than this. Her prior dirt races at the N1X level were not bad efforts, especially considering the form of today’s competition. She makes a lot of sense on speed figures and appears to be working well in her return from a brief layoff. Michelle Nevin is in the midst of a strong meet, and this filly drew well in the outside post position.

Fair Value:
#6 INTO HAPPINESS, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 6

The short prices didn’t do much for me in this $40k state-bred maiden claimer. Orange Freeze (#8) can obviously win as the likely favorite, but I wasn’t thrilled with her last effort when she dropped to this level. She got there in mid-stretch and just couldn’t stay with the winner late in a race that she was supposed to win. I want to go for either new faces or runners who might get overlooked. The lightly raced option that interests me is Dreaming of Carli (#11). This filly was never a serious factor on debut, but she also was ridden very conservatively. After a poor start she was just nursed along at the back before encountering some traffic when she tried to angle out in the stretch. Now she switches into the barn of Ed Barker, and I’m not totally convinced that the added ground will benefit her. Yet she figures to be a square price. My top pick is Giggling Ghost (#9), who figures to be an even bigger price based on her 0 for 12 career mark. Yet this 4-year-old showed significant improvement when she returned to turf this spring. She ran deceptively well going this distance in that April 14 race at the level. She chased a very fast pace that fell apart and was finishing better than the other speeds. Then last time she cut back to a sprint and was in the mix until the late stages, racing on in tight quarters. I don’t mind her stretching back out, and she gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.

Fair Value:
#9 GIGGLING GHOST, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 8

I didn’t want to settle for short prices on either favorite in this N1X allowance affair. Cupid’s Heart (#6) is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from another layoff. She put forth some of the best efforts of her career in her debut as a 2-year-old and then off a similar break when she returned at Saratoga last summer, so she obviously runs well fresh. However, I didn’t like her last performance going a mile, and she’s going to be a very short price despite the questions she has to answer. Royal Poppy (#1A) finished ahead of the now scratched Amaretti in her last start despite trying out new tactics, and I would be willing to give her another shot here if she weren’t part of an entry. My top pick is Khali Magic (#4). It’s unclear if she quite classes up with this field, but her greatest achievement is a New York-bred N2X allowance victory, which is exactly what Cupid’s Heart has accomplished. This 5-year-old can go in and out of form, but she was in one of her good cycles when she was last racing on dirt this spring. She ran deceptively well with a tough trip in that Mar. 3 event, and then broke through with an excellent performance to win on April 21. She got away with soft fractions, but she was always racing towards the inside during a time when the rail was not the place to be on the Aqueduct main track. Chris Englehart’s barn has been doing well at the meet, and her tactical speed should play well here once again.

Fair Value:
#4 KHALI MAGIC, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

The finale is a confusing state-bred maiden affair with many ways to go. I generally didn’t want to settle for short prices, so I wanted to veer away from runners like Stow on the Wold (#12) and Chulligan (#6). The former will get bet with Irad Ortiz getting aboard, and the latter has been popular with the bettors and finally gets on the surface he’s bred for. Captain Party (#13) is also dangerous as he draws into the field from the AE list, especially given the recent hot streak of the George Weaver barn. However, I don't love the races he's exiting and preferred others at better prices. All of these can obviously win, but others figure to offer better value. Donk’s other runner Tony O (#10) makes plenty of sense and doesn’t figure to attract as much support. He stayed on pretty well for third at the level last time and seems like one that will benefit from the slight cutback in distance. My top pick is a first time starter who figures to get somewhat ignored. Border Patrol (#11) debuts for trainer Jamie Begg, but he’s almost surely been part of the Rob Atras stable until recently, with that trainer serving a suspension. This horse has some pedigree, being by good turf influence Point of Entry out of a dam who has produced 6 winners, including full-sister Command Point, who won multiple turf races. This horse appears to be working decently for the debut and should fly under the radar.

Fair Value:
#11 BORDER PATROL, at 12-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Thursday, June 22

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1: 1 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 8 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 1A - 3
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 9 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

There is ample rain predicted on Thursday, so it remains to be seen if any of these races will stay on the grass. If this one is run on turf, I wanted to take some shots against Verbal (#1), who could go favored here for Chad Brown. This runner obviously showed ability as a two-year-old, and put in an encouraging return from the long layoff in the Tampa Bay Stakes over the winter. However, I thought his last effort at Keeneland was pretty disappointing. He failed to step forward, unable to produce a kick after pulling a good trip. There are other rivals in here with some quality who I preferred at better prices. Easter (#5) makes plenty of sense as he drops in class out of the Grade 3 Dinner Party. He won his first start of the season on this circuit against weaker, and might just be getting back to the right class level here. Duke of Hazzard (#3) also has the credentials to be effective in this spot, and he would be better served by a more aggressive ride after he was ripped well off the pace last time at Keeneland. He’s a win candidate at his best and should be a fair price. My top pick is Chasing the Crown (#4), who might have the most upside of any of these. I thought this 4-year-old put in a huge effort off the layoff at Gulfstream in January when he attacked a swift pace and battled on gamely for third behind the revelation of this year’s turf division, Up to the Mark. He then couldn’t make an impact in a race run at a much slower pace two back before beating up on weaker foes last time. He delivered as the heavy favorite in that Churchill allowance, but I was really impressed with the way he sustained a half-mile run and lengthened his stride through the lane. This full-brother to excellent turf mare Vasilika appears to be coming along nicely and may have stakes in his future if he passes this test.

Fair Value:
#4 CHASING THE CROWN, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4

If this stays on grass, I was somewhat against a couple of the expected short prices. Act of Congress (#9) figures to attract support off her victory against claiming foes at Pimlico last month, but she got her things her own way up front that day. Now she has to move up in class while stretching out to 6 furlongs in a race that features other speed. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should help late runners. Western Lane (#2) has some questions to answer regarding her overall form, which has declined in recent starts. However, she did run well in her lone prior turf sprint attempt last September and is finally getting back to that same distance. Boss of All (#4) beat weaker last time, but I liked the way she confidently traveled into the race and took over in the stretch. This is a significant step up in class, but I get the sense she’s better than the typical NY-bred maiden claiming winner. My top pick is Bustin Bullet (#8). She improved throughout the season last year, culminating with a strong second-place finish against state-board allowance company in November. She had a right to need a start coming off the layoff in April, and then didn’t get the best trip last time. She wasn’t ridden with much aggression early and got put in an awkward spot between and behind runners on the turn. She flattened out late, but I think turning back to 6 furlongs will suit her better, and now she gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis.

Fair Value:
#8 BUSTIN BULLET, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7

This state-bred optional claimer drew a competitive field of 7 runners led by 11-time winner Big Engine (#1). This 8-year-old spent much of the winter and spring competing against tougher open company rivals, where he actually had some success for Linda Rice. However, he got some welcome class relief last time, dropping back down to this New York-bred level. He ran an improved race, but the trip didn’t quite work out, as he was uncharacteristically close to the pace and couldn’t quite produce a strong enough finish to withstand the late runs of Awesome Native and Brew Pub, both of whom are in great form. This is a slightly softer spot than that, and he looks like the horse to beat. His main rival might be Daufuskie Island (#6), who got a confidence boost with his near 20-length victory two back against claimers and followed up that performance with another strong effort first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He was beating slightly softer company in that May 29 affair, but he did it the hard way, contesting a fast pace and holding off the closers. A repeat of that 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure will make him tough, but he will have to contend with other speed this time. Unique Unions (#4) and Foolish Ghost (#5) hooked up in the early stages of an April 30 race at this level, where they dueled each other into defeat. I wonder if the pace of this race could take a similar toll with Daufuskie Island also likely to force the issue. Thrill of It (#3) finished fourth, beaten nearly 5 lengths in that April 30 race at this level. However, he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he broke a step slowly and looked uncomfortable negotiating the turn. He was staying on gamely through the stretch, but got guided down to the inside, which perhaps wasn’t the place to be. I was impressed by his return from the layoff two back when he made a decisive move through traffic to win by open lengths in solid time. Now he gets Jaime Torres back aboard and figures to be a fair price, especially if some downgrade him on the assumption that he can’t handle a wet track.

Fair Value:
#3 THRILL OF IT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

Chad Brown holds a strong hand here, sending out the two favorites on the morning line, if this race can stay on the turf. Big Brass Bed (#8) is obviously a contender based on her maiden win at Monmouth, for which she earned a solid 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She did get a perfect trip that day, but still delivered in her first start for the Chad Brown stable. She makes some sense, but I thought her uncoupled stablemate was more interesting. Root Cause (#4) ran pretty well in her debut at Saratoga last year. She returned as the heavy favorite when she made her 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream, and delivered a confident victory. She raced covered up in behind rivals early and produced a nice late kick when Irad wheeled her out in upper stretch. She was then bet down to strong favoritism again last time for her first start against winner, but the result was disappointing. She got a different sort of trip, pressing an honest pace without cover, which may have sapped her stamina. I would expect her to get taken off the pace with this time Irad back aboard, looking to again produce that strong finish. I would also use Lifelovenlaughter (#5) and Quarrel (#6) along with the Chad Brown-trained selection. Lifelovenlaughter was placed in some tough spots last year, and showed mild improvement off a layoff last time against older rivals. Michael Trombetta has strong statistics second off a layoff. Quarrel also showed potential last year, and had a right to need a start when she returned against stakes company. This is a more appropriate spot, and her tactical speed figures to play well here.

Fair Value:
#4 ROOT CAUSE, at 9-5 or greater

TimeformUS Race Analysis (2024)

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References